College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130, China.
Department of Banking and Finance, Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus via Mersin, 10, Famagusta, Turkey.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Oct;28(37):51657-51673. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-14358-8. Epub 2021 May 14.
This study assessed the long-run (LR) and short-run (SR) impacts of climatic and non-climatic factors, i.e., CO emissions (COe), average level of temperature (ALT), average level of precipitation (ALP), area harvested of wheat and rice crops (AHW and (AHR), domestic credit (DCR), and agricultural labor (ALB) on wheat and rice production (WP and RP) in Turkey by using annual time series data ranging from 1980 to 2016 and by employing several econometric techniques. The autoregressive distributed lag-bounds (ARDL) approach and the Johansen and Juselius cointegration (JJC) test confirmed a valid long-term connection among underlying variables. The estimation results from the ARDL model reveal that climatic factors such as CO emissions and temperature adversely affected wheat production in the long run as well as in the short run, whereas precipitation positively improved wheat production in both periods. Further results indicate that non-climatic factors like area harvested of wheat and domestic credit positively and significantly enhanced wheat production in the long run and short run. Similarly, CO emissions also adversely affected rice production in both periods, while temperature and precipitation positively contributed towards rice production in both cases. In addition, area harvested of rice positively and significantly boosted rice production in the long run as well as in the short run, while domestic credit negatively influenced rice production in the long run but in the short run positively improved rice production. Additionally, the outcomes of the VECM Granger Causality for both rice and wheat production confirm that both climatic and non-climatic variables have a strong influence on the production of both crops. This study found that climate change has a deleterious influence on both wheat and rice production; therefore, the study suggests that temperature-resistant varieties of both crops should be developed and introduced by agricultural research institutions. In addition to this, up-to-date information is more needed related to climate change, and in the farming communities, it should be provided by agricultural extension workers.
本研究利用 1980 年至 2016 年的年度时间序列数据，并采用多种计量经济学技术，评估了气候和非气候因素（即二氧化碳排放（COe）、平均温度（ALT）、平均降水（ALP）、小麦和水稻作物收获面积（AHW 和 AHR）、国内信贷（DCR）和农业劳动力（ALB）对土耳其小麦和水稻生产（WP 和 RP）的长期（LR）和短期（SR）影响。自回归分布滞后边界（ARDL）方法和约翰森和朱斯柳斯协整（JJC）检验证实了基础变量之间存在有效的长期联系。ARDL 模型的估计结果表明，长期和短期来看，CO 排放和温度等气候因素对小麦生产产生了不利影响，而降水则在两个时期都提高了小麦生产。进一步的结果表明，像小麦收获面积和国内信贷这样的非气候因素，在长期和短期都对小麦生产产生了积极和显著的影响。同样，CO 排放也对两个时期的水稻生产产生了不利影响，而温度和降水在两种情况下都对水稻生产产生了积极的影响。此外，长期和短期来看，水稻收获面积也对水稻生产产生了积极和显著的促进作用，而国内信贷在长期对水稻生产产生了负面影响，但在短期却提高了水稻生产。此外，对水稻和小麦生产的 VECM 格兰杰因果关系的结果证实，气候和非气候变量对这两种作物的生产都有很强的影响。本研究发现，气候变化对小麦和水稻生产都有不利影响；因此，研究建议农业研究机构应开发和引进两种作物的抗高温品种。除此之外，农业推广人员还应在农业社区提供与气候变化有关的最新信息。
