Becchetti Leonardo, Beccari Gabriele, Conzo Gianluigi, Conzo Pierluigi, De Santis Davide, Salustri Francesco
University of Rome Tor Vergata, Department of Economics and Finance, Italy.
University of Turin, Department of Economics and Statistics "Cognetti de Martiis" & Collegio Carlo Alberto, Italy.
Ecol Econ. 2022 Apr;194:107340. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107340. Epub 2022 Jan 7.
We investigate the time-varying effect of particulate matter (PM) on COVID-19 deaths in Italian municipalities. We find that the lagged moving averages of PM and PM are significantly related to higher excess deceases during the first wave of the disease, after controlling, among other factors, for time-varying mobility, regional and municipality fixed effects, the nonlinear contagion trend, and lockdown effects. Our findings are confirmed after accounting for potential endogeneity, heterogeneous pandemic dynamics, and spatial correlation through pooled and fixed-effect instrumental variable estimates using municipal and provincial data. In addition, we decompose the overall PM effect and find that both pre-COVID long-term exposure and short-term variation during the pandemic matter. In terms of magnitude, we observe that a 1 μg/m increase in PM can lead to up to 20% more deaths in Italian municipalities, which is equivalent to a 5.9% increase in mortality rate.
我们研究了颗粒物（PM）对意大利各市新冠死亡病例的时变影响。我们发现，在控制了时变流动性、地区和市固定效应、非线性传播趋势以及封锁效应等其他因素后，PM的滞后移动平均值与疾病第一波期间更高的超额死亡显著相关。通过使用市和省级数据的混合和固定效应工具变量估计，在考虑了潜在的内生性、异质的疫情动态和空间相关性后，我们的研究结果得到了证实。此外，我们分解了PM的总体影响，发现新冠疫情前的长期暴露和疫情期间的短期变化都很重要。在影响程度方面，我们观察到PM每增加1μg/m³，意大利各市的死亡人数可能会增加多达20%，这相当于死亡率提高5.9%。
