Su Xukun, Shen Yu, Dong Shikui, Liu Yuqing, Cheng Hao, Wan Lingfan, Liu Guohua
State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Front Plant Sci. 2022 Jan 17;12:827618. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2021.827618. eCollection 2021.
Ignoring the responses of local households to ecological protection policies can not only seriously limit sustainable development of the alpine grassland ecosystem, but also not improve livelihood on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). It is of vital importance to clearly understand coupling feedback and trigger between household decision-making of local herdsmen with the implementation of ecological protection policies. We selected Sanjiangyuan National Park (SNP) as the study area which was in the hinterland of the QTP and the first national park in China. We used the global rangeland (G-Range) model to simulate alpine grassland changes and DEcisions under Conditions of Uncertainty by Modeled Agents (DECUMA) model to identify household decision-making of local herdsmen. Results showed that: (1) distribution of livestock density was basically consistent with the distribution of habitat suitability of local households in the SNP; (2) more than half of the uneducated households (52 and 70%) opposed the eco-compensation and eco-migration policies; (3) most of the households (53.7%) never traded livestock for maintaining their livelihood; and (4) When local households owed 65,000 yuan (≈10,000 dollars) in debts, as the critical value (trigger), they traded livestock to support their livelihood. We suggest that feedback and trigger of household decision-making should be fully considered by managers of national park and policymakers of local governments in planning ecological protection policies to maintain sustainable development of alpine grassland, which is of practical significance to long-term conservation and sustainable utilization of natural resources in the SNP.
忽视当地居民对生态保护政策的反应，不仅会严重限制高寒草原生态系统的可持续发展，也无法改善青藏高原的民生。清楚了解当地牧民家庭决策与生态保护政策实施之间的耦合反馈和触发因素至关重要。我们选择了位于青藏高原腹地且是中国首个国家公园的三江源国家公园作为研究区域。我们使用全球牧场（G-Range）模型模拟高寒草原变化，并使用不确定性条件下的建模主体决策（DECUMA）模型来识别当地牧民的家庭决策。结果表明：（1）牲畜密度分布与三江源国家公园当地家庭的栖息地适宜性分布基本一致；（2）超过一半的未受过教育的家庭（分别为52%和70%）反对生态补偿和生态移民政策；（3）大多数家庭（53.7%）从未为维持生计而交易牲畜；（4）当当地家庭负债6.5万元（约1万美元）作为临界值（触发点）时，他们会交易牲畜以维持生计。我们建议，国家公园管理者和地方政府政策制定者在规划生态保护政策时应充分考虑家庭决策的反馈和触发因素，以维持高寒草原的可持续发展，这对三江源国家公园自然资源的长期保护和可持续利用具有现实意义。
