Institute for Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University Hospital Essen, Essen, Germany.
Medical Direction Communal Emergency Service of the City Essen, Essen, Germany.
J Med Life. 2021 Nov-Dec;14(6):797-801. doi: 10.25122/jml-2021-0243.
Current European research estimates the number of undetected active SARS-CoV-2 infections (dark figure) to be two- to 130-fold the number of detected cases. We revisited the population-wide antigen tests in Slovakia and South Tyrol and calculated the dark figure of active cases in the vulnerable populations and the number of undetected active cases per detected active case at the time of the population-wide tests. Our analysis follows three steps: using the sensitivities and specificities of the used antigen tests, we first calculated the number of test-positive individuals and the proportion of actual positives in those who participated in the antigen tests. We then calculated the dark figure in the total population of Slovakia and South Tyrol, respectively. Finally, we calculated the ratio of the dark figure in the vulnerable population to the number of newly detected infections through PCR tests. Per one positive PCR result, another 0.15 to 0.71 cases must be added in South Tyrol and 0.01 to 1.25 cases in Slovakia. The dark figure was in both countries lower than assumed by earlier studies.
当前欧洲的研究估计，未检出的活跃 SARS-CoV-2 感染人数（暗数）是已检出病例数的 2 到 130 倍。我们重新分析了斯洛伐克和南蒂罗尔的全人群抗原检测，并计算了脆弱人群中活跃病例的暗数以及在全人群检测时每例检出的活跃病例中的未检出的活跃病例数。我们的分析分为三个步骤：首先，使用所使用的抗原检测的灵敏度和特异性，我们计算了检测阳性者的数量以及参加抗原检测的实际阳性者的比例。然后，我们分别计算了斯洛伐克和南蒂罗尔的总人口中的暗数。最后，我们计算了脆弱人群中的暗数与通过 PCR 检测新发现的感染人数的比值。在南蒂罗尔，每出现一个阳性的 PCR 结果，还必须另外加上 0.15 到 0.71 例，而在斯洛伐克则为 0.01 到 1.25 例。在这两个国家，暗数都低于早期研究的假设。
