Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain.
Centre de Recerca Matemàtica (CRM), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain.
Eur J Public Health. 2021 Oct 11;31(4):917-920. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckab118.
The main goal of this work is to estimate the actual number of cases of COVID-19 in Spain in the period 31 January 2020 to 01 June 2020 by Autonomous Communities. Based on these estimates, this work allows us to accurately re-estimate the lethality of the disease in Spain, taking into account unreported cases.
A hierarchical Bayesian model recently proposed in the literature has been adapted to model the actual number of COVID-19 cases in Spain.
The results of this work show that the real load of COVID-19 in Spain in the period considered is well above the data registered by the public health system. Specifically, the model estimates show that, cumulatively until 1 June 2020, there were 2 425 930 cases of COVID-19 in Spain with characteristics similar to those reported (95% credibility interval: 2 148 261-2 813 864), from which were actually registered only 518 664.
Considering the results obtained from the second wave of the Spanish seroprevalence study, which estimates 2 350 324 cases of COVID-19 produced in Spain, in the period of time considered, it can be seen that the estimates provided by the model are quite good. This work clearly shows the key importance of having good quality data to optimize decision-making in the critical context of dealing with a pandemic.
这项工作的主要目标是按自治区估计 2020 年 1 月 31 日至 6 月 1 日期间西班牙的 COVID-19 实际病例数。基于这些估计，这项工作使我们能够准确地重新估计考虑到未报告病例的情况下西班牙疾病的致死率。
最近文献中提出的分层贝叶斯模型已被改编为模拟西班牙 COVID-19 实际病例数。
这项工作的结果表明，所考虑期间西班牙 COVID-19 的实际负担明显高于公共卫生系统记录的数据。具体而言，模型估计表明，截至 2020 年 6 月 1 日累计有 2 425 930 例 COVID-19 病例，其特征与报告的病例相似（95%可信度区间：2 148 261-2 813 864），而实际登记的病例仅为 518 664 例。
考虑到西班牙血清流行率研究的第二波结果，该研究估计在考虑到的时间段内，西班牙有 2 350 324 例 COVID-19 病例，从模型中得到的估计结果相当不错。这项工作清楚地表明了拥有高质量数据对于优化大流行应对中决策的关键重要性。
