Frichi Youness, Ben Kacem Abderrahmane, Jawab Fouad, Boutahari Said, Kamach Oualid, Chafik Samir
Industrial Services and Technologies, High School of Technology, Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University, Fez.
Laboratory of Innovative Technologies, Abdelmalek Essaadi University, Tangier.
J Public Health Afr. 2022 Jan 13;12(2):1455. doi: 10.4081/jphia.2021.1455. eCollection 2021 Dec 31.
The novel coronavirus COVID-19 has known a large spread over the globe threatening human health. Recommendations from WHO and specialists insist on testing on a mass scale. However, health systems do not have enough resources. The current process requires the isolation of testees in the hospitals' isolation rooms for several hours until the test results are revealed, limiting hospitals' capacities to test large numbers of cases. The aim of this paper was to estimate the impact of reducing the COVID-19 test time on controlling the pandemic spread, through increasing hospitals' capacities to test on a mass scale. First, a discrete-event simulation was used to model and simulate the COVID-19 testing process in Morocco. Second, a mathematical model was developed to demonstrate the effect of accurate identification of infected cases on controlling the disease's spread. Simulation results showed that hospitals' testing capacities could be increased six times if the test duration fell from 10 hours to 10 minutes. The reduction of test time would increase testing capacities, which help to identify all the infected cases. In contrast, the simulation results indicated that if the infected population is not accurately identified and no precautionary measures are taken, the virus will continue to spread until it reaches the total population. Reducing test time is a vital component of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It is essential for the effective implementation of policies to contain the virus.
新型冠状病毒 COVID-19 在全球范围内广泛传播，威胁着人类健康。世界卫生组织（WHO）和专家建议进行大规模检测。然而，卫生系统没有足够的资源。目前的检测流程要求受检者在医院隔离病房隔离数小时，直到检测结果出来，这限制了医院大规模检测的能力。本文的目的是通过提高医院大规模检测的能力，评估缩短 COVID-19 检测时间对控制疫情传播的影响。首先，使用离散事件模拟对摩洛哥的 COVID-19 检测过程进行建模和模拟。其次，开发了一个数学模型来证明准确识别感染病例对控制疾病传播的作用。模拟结果表明，如果检测时间从 10 小时缩短到 10 分钟，医院的检测能力可以提高六倍。缩短检测时间将提高检测能力，有助于识别所有感染病例。相反，模拟结果表明，如果没有准确识别感染人群且未采取预防措施，病毒将继续传播，直至感染所有人。缩短检测时间是应对 COVID-19 疫情的关键组成部分。这对于有效实施控制病毒的政策至关重要。
