Zhou Yiqi, Duan Weili, Chen Yaning, Yi Jiahui, Wang Bin, Di Yanfeng, He Chao
University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, 100049 China.
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011 China.
Expo Health. 2022;14(2):431-446. doi: 10.1007/s12403-022-00463-7. Epub 2022 Jan 29.
Surface ozone (O) is an oxidizing gaseous pollutant; long-term exposure to high O concentrations adversely affects human health. Based on daily surface O concentration data, the spatiotemporal characteristics of O concentration, exposure risks, and driving meteorological factors in 347 cities and 10 major countries (China, Japan, India, South Korea, the United States, Poland, Spain, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom) worldwide were analyzed using the MAKESENS model, Moran' analysis, and Generalized additive model (GAM). The results indicated that: in the boreal spring season from 2015 to 2020, the global O concentration exhibited an increasing trend at a rate of 0.6 μg/m/year because of the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NOx changes caused by human activities. Due to the lockdown policies after the outbreak of COVID-19, the average O concentration worldwide showed an inverted U-shaped growth during the study period, increasing from 21.9 μg/m in 2015 to 27.3 μg/m in 2019, and finally decreasing to 25.9 μg/m in 2020. According to exposure analytical methods, approximately 6.32% of the population (31.73 million people) in the major countries analyzed reside in rapidly increasing O concentrations. 6.53% of the population (32.75 million people) in the major countries were exposed to a low O concentration growth environment. Thus, the continuous increase of O concentration worldwide is an important factor leading to increasing threats to human health. Further we found that mean wind speed, maximum temperature, and relative humidity are the main factors that determine the change of O concentration. Our research results are of great significance to the continued implementation of strict air quality policies and prevention of population hazards. However, due to data limitations, this research can only provide general trends in O and human health, and more detailed research will be carried out in the follow-up.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12403-022-00463-7.
地表臭氧（O）是一种氧化性气态污染物；长期暴露于高浓度臭氧会对人体健康产生不利影响。基于每日地表臭氧浓度数据，利用MAKESENS模型、莫兰分析和广义相加模型（GAM），分析了全球347个城市以及10个主要国家（中国、日本、印度、韩国、美国、波兰、西班牙、德国、法国和英国）臭氧浓度的时空特征、暴露风险及驱动气象因素。结果表明：在2015年至2020年的北半球春季，由于人类活动导致的挥发性有机化合物（VOCs）和氮氧化物变化，全球臭氧浓度以每年0.6μg/m的速度呈上升趋势。由于新冠疫情爆发后的封锁政策，在研究期间全球平均臭氧浓度呈倒U形增长，从2015年的21.9μg/m升至2019年的27.3μg/m，最终在2020年降至25.9μg/m。根据暴露分析方法，在分析的主要国家中，约6.32%的人口（3173万人）居住在臭氧浓度快速上升的地区。主要国家中6.53%的人口（3275万人）暴露于低臭氧浓度增长环境。因此，全球臭氧浓度的持续上升是导致对人类健康威胁增加的重要因素。此外，我们发现平均风速、最高温度和相对湿度是决定臭氧浓度变化的主要因素。我们的研究结果对于持续实施严格的空气质量政策和预防人群危害具有重要意义。然而，由于数据限制，本研究只能提供臭氧与人类健康的总体趋势，后续将开展更详细的研究。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s12403-022-00463-7获取的补充材料。
