2020 年 SARS-CoV-2 疫情对南非死亡率的影响。

The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic on mortality in South Africa in 2020.

机构信息

Centre for Actuarial Research, Faculty of Commerce, University of Cape Town, South Africa.

出版信息

S Afr Med J. 2022 Feb 2;112(1):13513.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The impacts on mortality of both the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and the interventions to manage it differ between countries. The Rapid Mortality Surveillance System set up by the South African Medical Research Council based on data from the National Population Register (NPR) provides a means of tracking this impact on mortality in South Africa.

OBJECTIVES

To report on the change in key metrics of mortality (numbers of deaths, life expectancy at birth, life expectancy at age 60, and infant, under-5, older child and adolescent, young adult, and adult mortality) over the period 2015 - 2020. The key features of the impact are contrasted with those measured in other countries.

METHODS

The numbers of registered deaths by age and sex recorded on the NPR were increased to account for both registered deaths that are not captured by the NPR and an estimate of deaths not reported. The estimated numbers of deaths together with estimates of the numbers in the population in the middle of each of the years were used to produce life tables and calculate various indicators.

RESULTS

Between 2019 and 2020, the number of deaths increased by nearly 53 000 (65% female), and life expectancy at birth fell by 1 year for females and by only 2.5 months for males. Life expectancy at age 60 decreased by 1.6 years for females and 1.2 years for males. Infant mortality, under-5 mortality and mortality of children aged 5 - 14 decreased by 22%, 20% and 10%, respectively, while that for older children and adolescents decreased by 11% for males and 5% for females. Premature adult mortality, the probability of a 15-year-old dying before age 60, increased by 2% for males and 9% for females.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 and the interventions to manage it had differential impacts on mortality by age and sex. The impact of the epidemic on life expectancy in 2020 differs from that in most other, mainly developed, countries, both in the limited decline and also in the greater impact on females. These empirical estimates of life expectancy and mortality rates are not reflected by estimates from agencies, either because agency estimates have yet to be updated for the impact of the epidemic or because they have not allowed for the impact correctly. Trends in weekly excess deaths suggest that the drop in life expectancy in 2021 will be greater than that in 2020.

摘要

背景

新冠病毒 SARS-CoV-2 疫情及其管理干预措施对死亡率的影响因国家而异。南非医学研究理事会（South African Medical Research Council）基于国家人口登记处（National Population Register，NPR）的数据建立的快速死亡率监测系统为跟踪南非死亡率的这一影响提供了一种手段。

目的

报告 2015-2020 年期间关键死亡率指标（死亡人数、出生时预期寿命、60 岁时预期寿命以及婴儿、5 岁以下儿童、较大儿童和青少年、青年和成年死亡率）的变化。将这些关键特征与其他国家的测量结果进行对比。

方法

将 NPR 记录的按年龄和性别分类的已登记死亡人数增加，以计入 NPR 未记录的已登记死亡人数以及估计的未报告死亡人数。将估计的死亡人数与每年年中人口数的估计数结合起来，制作生命表并计算各种指标。

结果

2019 年至 2020 年间，死亡人数增加了近 53 000 人（女性占 65%），女性出生时预期寿命下降 1 年，男性仅下降 2.5 个月。女性 60 岁时的预期寿命下降 1.6 年，男性下降 1.2 年。婴儿死亡率、5 岁以下儿童死亡率和 5-14 岁儿童死亡率分别下降 22%、20%和 10%，而较大儿童和青少年死亡率男性下降 11%，女性下降 5%。男性和女性 15 岁前死于 60 岁前的早逝率分别上升 2%和 9%。

结论

新冠病毒 SARS-CoV-2 疫情及其管理干预措施对不同年龄和性别的死亡率产生了不同的影响。2020 年疫情对预期寿命的影响与大多数其他主要发达国家不同，不仅表现在预期寿命的有限下降，还表现在对女性的影响更大。这些关于预期寿命和死亡率的经验估计并未反映在各机构的估计中，原因要么是这些机构的估计尚未更新疫情的影响，要么是它们没有正确考虑到疫情的影响。每周超额死亡人数的趋势表明，2021 年预期寿命的下降幅度将大于 2020 年。