Maria Krambia-Kapardis, Ioanna Stylianou, Salomi Demetriou
Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol, Cyprus.
University of Central Lancashire, Pyla, Cyprus.
Empir Econ. 2022;63(4):1997-2024. doi: 10.1007/s00181-021-02193-2. Epub 2022 Feb 7.
The relationship between corruption and tourism has been sporadically examined over the years. According to the existing theory, there is an inverted U relationship which implies that tourism demand initially increases as corruption increases (greasing the wheels) and after a certain threshold level of corruption, tourism demand decreases (sanding the wheels). Empirical studies so far concentrated on capturing the nonlinear relationship, by applying a simple linear model and by including corruption as a quadratic term. In the current paper, the authors revisit the "greasing and sanding the wheels" hypothesis by applying an advanced econometric technique, the threshold regression model, which deals with a key element of model uncertainty, namely parameter heterogeneity. In particular, using a sample of 83 countries from 2001 to 2018, the authors firstly examine if there is a nonlinear relationship between corruption and tourism, and then, they estimate the threshold value of corruption. According to the results, the null hypothesis of a linear model against the alternative of a threshold model with two regimes is strongly rejected. Furthermore, while the effect of corruption on tourism is positive in the low corruption regime and negative in the high corruption regime, a heterogeneous relationship is also found between other politico-socio-economic variables and tourism demand in the low and high corruption regimes.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00181-021-02193-2.
多年来，腐败与旅游业之间的关系一直受到零星研究。根据现有理论，存在一种倒U型关系，这意味着随着腐败程度的增加，旅游需求最初会上升（润滑车轮），而当腐败程度达到一定阈值后，旅游需求会下降（磨损车轮）。迄今为止的实证研究主要通过应用简单线性模型并将腐败作为二次项纳入来捕捉这种非线性关系。在本文中，作者运用一种先进的计量经济学技术——阈值回归模型，重新审视“润滑与磨损车轮”假说，该模型处理了模型不确定性的一个关键要素，即参数异质性。具体而言，作者使用2001年至2018年83个国家的样本，首先检验腐败与旅游业之间是否存在非线性关系，然后估计腐败的阈值。结果表明，线性模型的原假设被强烈拒绝，备择假设为具有两个状态的阈值模型。此外，虽然在低腐败状态下腐败对旅游业的影响是积极的，而在高腐败状态下是消极的，但在低腐败和高腐败状态下，其他政治社会经济变量与旅游需求之间也发现了异质性关系。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s00181-021-02193-2获取的补充材料。
