School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Department of Outpatient, Beijing Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Front Public Health. 2022 Jan 28;9:755530. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.755530. eCollection 2021.
The internet data is an essential tool for reflecting public attention to hot issues. This study aimed to use the Baidu Index (BDI) and Sina Micro Index (SMI) to confirm correlation between COVID-19 case data and Chinese online data (public attention). This could verify the effect of online data on early warning of public health events, which will enable us to respond in a more timely and effective manner.
Spearman correlation was used to check the consistency of BDI and SMI. Time lag cross-correlation analysis of BDI, SMI and six case-related indicators and multiple linear regression prediction were performed to explore the correlation between public concern and the actual epidemic.
The public's usage trend of the Baidu search engine and Sina Weibo was consistent during the COVID-19 outbreak. BDI, SMI and COVID-19 indicators had significant advance or lag effects, among which SMI and six indicators all had advance effects while BDI only had advance effects with new confirmed cases and new death cases. But compared with the SMI, the BDI was more closely related to the epidemic severity. Notably, the prediction model constructed by BDI and SMI can well fit new confirmed cases and new death cases.
The confirmed associations between the public's attention to the outbreak of COVID and the trend of epidemic outbreaks implied valuable insights into effective mechanisms of crisis response. In response to public health emergencies, people can through the information recommendation functions of social media and search engines (such as Weibo hot search and Baidu homepage recommendation) to raise awareness of available disease prevention and treatment, health services, and policy change.
互联网数据是反映公众对热点问题关注的重要工具。本研究旨在利用百度指数(BDI)和新浪微指数(SMI)来确认 COVID-19 病例数据与中国在线数据(公众关注度)之间的相关性。这可以验证在线数据对公共卫生事件预警的效果,使我们能够更及时、更有效地做出反应。
采用 Spearman 相关系数检验 BDI 和 SMI 的一致性。对 BDI、SMI 与 6 个病例相关指标进行时滞交叉相关分析和多元线性回归预测,探讨公众关注度与实际疫情的相关性。
COVID-19 疫情期间,百度搜索引擎和新浪微博的公众使用趋势一致。BDI、SMI 和 COVID-19 指标均有显著的提前或滞后效应,其中 SMI 和 6 项指标均有提前效应,而 BDI 仅对新确诊病例和新死亡病例有提前效应。但与 SMI 相比,BDI 与疫情严重程度的相关性更强。值得注意的是,由 BDI 和 SMI 构建的预测模型可以很好地拟合新确诊病例和新死亡病例。
公众对 COVID 疫情爆发的关注与疫情趋势之间的明确关联,为有效的危机应对机制提供了有价值的见解。在应对公共卫生突发事件时,人们可以通过社交媒体和搜索引擎的信息推荐功能(如微博热搜和百度首页推荐),提高对现有疾病预防和治疗、卫生服务以及政策变化的认识。