Department of Mathematics, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia.
Sci Rep. 2022 Feb 16;12(1):2639. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-06253-0.
In this paper, we have considered a deterministic mathematical model to analyze effective interventions for meningitis and pneumonia coinfection as well as to make a rational recommendation to public healthy, policy or decision makers and programs implementers. We have introduced the epidemiology of infectious diseases, the epidemiology of meningitis, the epidemiology of pneumonia, and the epidemiology of infection of meningitis and pneumonia. The positivity and boundedness of the sated model was shown. Our model elucidate that, the disease free equilibrium points of each model are locally asymptotically stable if the corresponding reproduction numbers are less than one and globally asymptotically stable if the corresponding reproduction numbers are greater than one. Additionally, we have analyzed the existence and uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium point of each sub models, local stability and global stability of the endemic equilibrium points for each model. By using standard values of parameters we have obtained from different studies, we found that the effective reproduction numbers of meningitis [Formula: see text] and effective reproduction numbers of pneumonia [Formula: see text] that lead us to the effective reproduction number of the meningitis and pneumonia co-infected model is [Formula: see text]. Applying sensitivity analysis, we identified the most influential parameters that can change the behavior of the solution of the meningitis pneumonia coinfection dynamical system are [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. Biologically, decrease in [Formula: see text] and increasing in [Formula: see text] is a possible intervention strategy to reduce the infectious from communities. Finally, our numerical simulation has shown that vaccination against those diseases, reducing contact with infectious persons and treatment have the great effect on reduction of these silent killer diseases from the communities.
本文考虑了一个确定性的数学模型，以分析脑膜炎和肺炎合并感染的有效干预措施，并向公共卫生、政策或决策者以及项目实施者提出合理建议。我们介绍了传染病的流行病学、脑膜炎的流行病学、肺炎的流行病学以及脑膜炎和肺炎感染的流行病学。证明了饱和模型的正定性和有界性。我们的模型阐明了，如果每个模型的相应繁殖数小于 1，则无病平衡点是局部渐近稳定的，如果相应的繁殖数大于 1，则是全局渐近稳定的。此外，我们还分析了每个子模型的地方平衡点的存在性和唯一性，以及每个模型的地方平衡点的局部稳定性和全局稳定性。通过使用我们从不同研究中获得的标准参数值，我们发现脑膜炎的有效繁殖数[Formula: see text]和肺炎的有效繁殖数[Formula: see text]导致我们得到脑膜炎和肺炎合并感染模型的有效繁殖数[Formula: see text]。通过敏感性分析，我们确定了最能改变脑膜炎肺炎合并感染动力学系统解行为的最具影响力的参数是[Formula: see text]和[Formula: see text]。从生物学角度来看，减少[Formula: see text]和增加[Formula: see text]是减少社区传染性的一种可能的干预策略。最后，我们的数值模拟表明，针对这些疾病的疫苗接种、减少与感染者的接触和治疗对减少这些社区中沉默杀手疾病具有重要作用。
