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2018年在伊朗伊斯法罕市运用网络放大法对吸毒者进行人口规模估计

Population Size Estimation of Drug Users in Isfahan City (Iran) Using Network Scale-up Method in 2018.

作者信息

Abshenas-Jami Meysam, Baneshi Mohamadreza, Nasirian Maryam

机构信息

Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.

Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran AND School of Medicine, Center for Longitudinal and Life Course Research, School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Herston, Australia.

出版信息

Addict Health. 2021 Oct;13(4):249-258. doi: 10.22122/ahj.v13i4.1238.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

To provide prevention programs and educate drug users (DUs), the estimation of their population is necessary. This study aimed to estimate the population size of this hidden group in Isfahan city as a metropolitan in Iran using the network scale-up ýmethod (NSUM).

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was performed in summer 2018 on 1000 people selected through a multistage sampling method based on 14 region of the municipality of Isfahan. The data collection tool was a questionnaire that was previously used in Dr. Banshi's national plan without any changes. The Cronbach's alpha value of the questionnaire was 0.826. Using correction factors such as transparency of response and the ratio of social network size used in previous national studies, the number of people with high-risk behaviors was estimated. The results were analyzed through NSUM based on survey analysis.

FINDINGS

Among all kinds of DUs, men were the largest consumers. The prevalence of use of opium, cannabis, heroin/crack, stimulants, ecstasy, hallucinogens, tramadol, zolpidem, tobacco, and drug injection was 2983, 2342, 613, 766, 86, 268, 1185, 213, 5869, 135 in 100000 people, among individuals of over 18 years of age. In both sexes, the prevalence of using opium and its nectar and illegal treatment with methadone and buprenorphine was higher in people of over 30 years of age, while the prevalence of consuming cannabis, ecstasy, tramadol, tobacco products, and stimulants was higher in the age group of 18 to 30 years.

CONCLUSION

The results indicated that the prevalence of different DUs in Isfahan city, especially among men was higher than the reported average (especially in young men of 18-30 years of age). Since the prevalence of drug use varies based on the type of substance used among age groups, targeted preventive planning based on the type of drug used and age group is recommended.

摘要

背景

为了提供预防项目并教育吸毒者,对其人群规模进行估计是必要的。本研究旨在使用网络扩大法(NSUM)估计伊朗大都市伊斯法罕市这一隐匿群体的人口规模。

方法

这项横断面研究于2018年夏季开展,对通过基于伊斯法罕市14个区域的多阶段抽样方法选取的1000人进行了调查。数据收集工具是一份先前在班希博士的国家计划中使用过且未作任何修改的问卷。该问卷的克朗巴哈系数值为0.826。利用诸如回答透明度和先前国家研究中使用的社交网络规模比率等校正因子,对有高危行为的人数进行了估计。基于调查分析,通过网络扩大法对结果进行了分析。

结果

在各类吸毒者中,男性是最大的消费群体。在18岁以上人群中,每10万人中鸦片、大麻、海洛因/快克、兴奋剂、摇头丸、致幻剂、曲马多、唑吡坦(思诺思)、烟草和药物注射的使用流行率分别为2983、2342、613、766、86、268、1185、213、5869、135。在30岁以上人群中,无论男女,使用鸦片及其提取物以及美沙酮和丁丙诺啡非法治疗的流行率较高,而在18至30岁年龄组中,消费大麻、摇头丸、曲马多、烟草制品和兴奋剂的流行率较高。

结论

结果表明,伊斯法罕市不同吸毒者的流行率,尤其是男性中的流行率高于报告的平均水平(特别是在18至30岁的年轻男性中)。由于吸毒流行率因年龄组中使用的物质类型而异,建议根据所使用药物的类型和年龄组制定有针对性的预防计划。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/17f2/8818311/74b4867835f5/AHJ-13-249f1.jpg

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