Department of Leisure and Recreation Management, Asia University, Taichung, Taiwan.
Department of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan.
Front Public Health. 2022 Feb 7;9:766091. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.766091. eCollection 2021.
This study attempts to investigate whether healthcare expenditures (HCE) are related to economic growth in China using a newly developed Bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) test for China over the period of 1990-2019. To avoid omitted variable bias, we use the ratio of the population of 65 years old over the total population (aging ratio) as a control variable. Empirical result indicates that no cointegration among these three variables. Granger causality test based on Bootstrap ARDL model demonstrates that one-way Granger causality running from HCE to aging ratio and from economic growth to both HCE and aging ratio. Empirical results have important policy implications for China understudy.
本研究旨在利用新开发的 Bootstrap 自回归分布滞后（ARDL）检验方法，考察 1990 年至 2019 年期间中国的医疗保健支出（HCE）与经济增长之间的关系。为避免遗漏变量偏差，我们使用 65 岁以上人口与总人口的比例（老龄化比例）作为控制变量。实证结果表明，这三个变量之间不存在协整关系。基于 Bootstrap ARDL 模型的格兰杰因果检验表明，从 HCE 到老龄化比例以及从经济增长到 HCE 和老龄化比例的单向格兰杰因果关系成立。实证结果对所研究的中国具有重要的政策意义。
