Faculty of Computing, Engineering and Science, Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research and Data (WISERD) and GIS Research Centre, University of South Wales, Pontypridd, UK.
Welsh Institute for Health and Social Care, University of South Wales, Pontypridd, UK.
Health Soc Care Community. 2022 Nov;30(6):2218-2229. doi: 10.1111/hsc.13770. Epub 2022 Feb 25.
Suggestions of the existence of so-called 'social care deserts' in England in the years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic drew attention to the potential impact of geographical inequalities on the availability of residential, nursing and domiciliary care. To date, much of this analysis has been conducted at spatially aggregated scales such as that of local authorities or postcode sector. Hidden within such aggregate-level analysis however are geographical differences in the local provision of care services. In this paper, we draw attention to geographical modelling techniques that can be used to examine local trends in the supply of social care services in relation to potential demand. These spatial models can be used to examine variations in the number of facilities (or choice) within reasonable drive times/distances. Drawing on a national database of residential and nursing care beds in Wales for March 2020, we illustrate the potential of such techniques to provide an insight into current patterns in access to care homes, and to monitor future changes in the fall-out from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the care home sector. The concentration of care home sites in metropolitan areas and in the heavily populated post-industrial valleys in the south-east is identified, but significant demand present in these areas ameliorates scores towards mid-range ratios. We conclude by suggesting that the types of techniques used in this study enable disparities in provision within localised areas to be better explored, thereby helping planners and policy makers to address potential inequalities in provision.
在 COVID-19 大流行之前的几年中，英国存在所谓的“社会关怀荒漠”的说法引起了人们对地理不平等对居住、护理和家庭护理服务可及性的潜在影响的关注。迄今为止，这项分析的大部分都是在空间上进行的，例如地方当局或邮政编码部门的规模。然而，在这种聚合级别的分析中，隐藏着护理服务的地方提供的地理差异。在本文中，我们提请注意可以用于检查社会护理服务供应与潜在需求之间局部趋势的地理建模技术。这些空间模型可用于检查在合理驾驶时间/距离内设施数量（或选择）的变化。利用威尔士 2020 年 3 月的住宅和护理床位国家数据库，我们说明了这些技术的潜力，可用于深入了解养老院的当前准入模式，并监测 COVID-19 大流行对养老院部门的影响造成的未来变化。识别出养老院场所集中在大都市区和东南部人口稠密的后工业化山谷，但这些地区存在大量需求，使分数向中等范围的比例缓和。最后，我们建议，本研究中使用的技术类型可以更好地探索局部地区的供应差异，从而帮助规划者和决策者解决供应方面的潜在不平等问题。
