Bezjak Miran, Stresec Ivan, Kocman Branislav, Jadrijević Stipislav, Filipec Kanizaj Tajana, Antonijević Miro, Dalbelo Bašić Bojana, Mikulić Danko
Department of Surgery, University Hospital Merkur, Zagreb 10000, Croatia.
Department of Electronics, Microelectronics, Computer and Intelligent Systems, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, Zagreb 10000, Croatia.
World J Gastrointest Surg. 2024 Feb 27;16(2):331-344. doi: 10.4240/wjgs.v16.i2.331.
The growing disparity between the rising demand for liver transplantation (LT) and the limited availability of donor organs has prompted a greater reliance on older liver grafts. Traditionally, utilizing livers from elderly donors has been associated with outcomes inferior to those achieved with grafts from younger donors. By accounting for additional risk factors, we hypothesize that the utilization of older liver grafts has a relatively minor impact on both patient survival and graft viability.
To evaluate the impact of donor age on LT outcomes using multivariate analysis and comparing young and elderly donor groups.
In the period from April 2013 to December 2018, 656 adult liver transplants were performed at the University Hospital Merkur. Several multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were developed to independently assess the significance of donor age. Donor age was treated as a continuous variable. The approach involved univariate and multivariate analysis, including variable selection and assessment of interactions and transformations. Additionally, to exemplify the similarity of using young and old donor liver grafts, the group of 87 recipients of elderly donor liver grafts (≥ 75 years) was compared to a group of 124 recipients of young liver grafts (≤ 45 years) from the dataset. Survival rates of the two groups were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test was used to test the differences between groups.
Using multivariate Cox analysis, we found no statistical significance in the role of donor age within the constructed models. Even when retained during the entire model development, the donor age's impact on survival remained insignificant and transformations and interactions yielded no substantial effects on survival. Consistent insignificance and low coefficient values suggest that donor age does not impact patient survival in our dataset. Notably, there was no statistical evidence that the five developed models did not adhere to the proportional hazards assumption. When comparing donor age groups, transplantation using elderly grafts showed similar early graft function, similar graft ( = 0.92), and patient survival rates ( = 0.86), and no significant difference in the incidence of postoperative complications.
Our center's experience indicates that donor age does not play a significant role in patient survival, with elderly livers performing comparably to younger grafts when accounting for other risk factors.
肝移植(LT)需求不断增长与供体器官供应有限之间的差距日益扩大,促使人们更多地依赖老年供肝。传统上,使用老年供体肝脏的预后不如年轻供体肝脏。通过考虑其他风险因素,我们假设使用老年供肝对患者生存率和移植物活力的影响相对较小。
使用多变量分析并比较年轻和老年供体组,评估供体年龄对肝移植预后的影响。
2013年4月至2018年12月期间,梅尔库尔大学医院进行了656例成人肝移植。开发了几个多变量Cox比例风险模型,以独立评估供体年龄的重要性。供体年龄被视为连续变量。该方法包括单变量和多变量分析,包括变量选择以及相互作用和转换的评估。此外,为了举例说明使用年轻和老年供体肝脏移植物的相似性,将数据集中87例接受老年供体肝脏移植物(≥75岁)受者的组与124例接受年轻肝脏移植物(≤45岁)受者的组进行比较。使用Kaplan-Meier方法估计两组的生存率,并使用对数秩检验来检验组间差异。
使用多变量Cox分析,我们发现在构建的模型中供体年龄的作用没有统计学意义。即使在整个模型开发过程中保留该变量时, 供体年龄对生存率 的影响仍然不显著,并且转换和相互作用对生存率也没有实质性影响。持续的不显著性和低系数值表明供体年龄不会影响我们数据集中的患者生存率。值得注意的是,没有统计证据表明所开发的五个模型不符合比例风险假设。比较供体年龄组时,使用老年移植物进行移植显示出相似的早期移植物功能、相似的移植物生存率( =0.92)和患者生存率( =0.86),并且术后并发症发生率没有显著差异。
我们中心的经验表明,供体年龄在患者生存中不起重要作用,在考虑其他风险因素时,老年肝脏的表现与年轻移植物相当。