Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatchewan, Canada.
GM Crops Food. 2022 Dec 31;13(1):388-401. doi: 10.1080/21645698.2021.2020028. Epub 2022 Feb 28.
The Mexican government has decided to ban imports of genetically modified (GM) maize, to rely on agroecology for maize production to satisfy domestic yellow maize requirements. No economic impact assessment of this policy decision was made public, and the implications of this decision for users of yellow maize and consumers are significant. This article measures the economic surplus generated from Mexican GM yellow maize imports and domestic conventional yellow maize production over the last 20 years, and projects the economic surplus generated over five years from adopting agroecology for yellow maize production. We explore three likely scenarios and find that in all of them, yellow maize processors lose almost twice as much economic surplus as producers. In the most conservative loss estimate (Scenario 1), the surplus loss in five years is equivalent to 35% of the economic surplus generated over the last 21 years from GM maize imports and domestic Mexican conventional production. In all simulated Scenarios, between 2024 and 2025 the price of a metric ton of yellow maize will increase 81percent because of the change in production systems (from conventional to agroecology). These financial losses will ultimately factor into the prices consumers pay for poultry and red meat products, resulting in higher domestic retail food prices.
墨西哥政府决定禁止进口转基因（GM）玉米，转而依靠农业生态学来生产玉米，以满足国内黄玉米的需求。这项政策决策没有进行任何经济影响评估，其对黄玉米用户和消费者的影响意义重大。本文衡量了过去 20 年来墨西哥 GM 黄玉米进口和国内传统黄玉米生产所产生的经济剩余，并预测了采用农业生态学生产黄玉米五年内产生的经济剩余。我们探讨了三种可能的情况，发现无论在哪种情况下，黄玉米加工商的经济剩余损失几乎是生产商的两倍。在最保守的损失估计（情景 1）中，五年内的剩余损失相当于过去 21 年 GM 玉米进口和国内墨西哥传统生产所产生经济剩余的 35%。在所有模拟情景中，由于生产系统的变化（从传统到农业生态学），2024 年至 2025 年，每吨黄玉米的价格将上涨 81%。这些财务损失最终将反映在消费者购买禽肉和红肉产品的价格上，导致国内零售食品价格上涨。
