Brookdale Department of Geriatrics and Palliative Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York.
Geriatric Research Education and Clinical Center, James J. Peters VA Medical Center, Bronx.
Med Care. 2022 May 1;60(5):332-341. doi: 10.1097/MLR.0000000000001701.
An improved understanding of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is needed to identify predictors of outcomes among older adults with COVID-19.
The objective of this study was to examine patient and health system factors predictive of in-hospital mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and readmission among patients with COVID-19.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A cohort study of patients aged 18 years and older with COVID-19 discharged from 5 New York hospitals within the Mount Sinai Health System (March 1, 2020-June 30, 2020).
Patient-level characteristics (age, sex, race/ethnicity, comorbidities/serious illness, transfer from skilled nursing facility, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral load, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, treatments); hospital characteristics.
All-cause in-hospital mortality; ICU admission; 30-day readmission.
Among 7556 subjects, mean age 61.1 (62.0) years; 1556 (20.6%) died, 949 (12.6%) had an ICU admission, and 227 (9.1%) had a 30-day readmission. Increased age [aged 55-64: odds ratio (OR), 3.28; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.41-4.46; aged 65-74: OR, 4.67; 95% CI, 3.43-6.35; aged 75-84: OR, 10.73; 95% CI, 7.77-14.81; aged 85 y and older: OR, 20.57; 95% CI, 14.46-29.25] and comorbidities (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.16, 2.13) were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. Yet older adults (aged 55-64 y: OR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.40-0.77; aged 65-74: OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.33-0.65; aged 75-84: OR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.18-0.40; aged above 85 y: OR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.13-0.34) and those with Medicaid (OR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.56-0.99) were less likely to be admitted to the ICU. Race/ethnicity, crowding, population density, and health system census were not associated with study outcomes.
Increased age was the single greatest independent risk factor for mortality. Comorbidities and serious illness were independently associated with mortality. Understanding these risk factors can guide medical decision-making for older adults with COVID-19. Older adults and those admitted from a skilled nursing facility were half as likely to be admitted to the ICU. This finding requires further investigation to understand how age and treatment preferences factored into resource allocation.
为了确定与 COVID-19 相关的结局预测因素,需要更深入地了解 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行。
本研究旨在检查与 COVID-19 患者住院死亡率、重症监护病房(ICU)入院和 30 天再入院相关的患者和卫生系统因素。
设计、地点和参与者:这是一项对 5 家纽约市西奈山卫生系统(2020 年 3 月 1 日至 2020 年 6 月 30 日)出院的年龄在 18 岁及以上的 COVID-19 患者进行的队列研究。
患者特征(年龄、性别、种族/族裔、合并症/严重疾病、从熟练护理机构转来、严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 病毒载量、序贯器官衰竭评估评分、治疗);医院特征。
在 7556 名患者中,平均年龄 61.1(62.0)岁;1556 名(20.6%)死亡,949 名(12.6%)进入 ICU,227 名(9.1%)在 30 天内再次入院。年龄增长(年龄在 55-64 岁之间:比值比[OR],3.28;95%置信区间[CI],2.41-4.46;年龄在 65-74 岁之间:OR,4.67;95%CI,3.43-6.35;年龄在 75-84 岁之间:OR,10.73;95%CI,7.77-14.81;年龄在 85 岁及以上:OR,20.57;95%CI,14.46-29.25)和合并症(OR,1.11;95%CI,1.16,2.13)是住院死亡率的独立危险因素。然而,年龄较大的成年人(年龄在 55-64 岁:OR,0.56;95%CI,0.40-0.77;年龄在 65-74 岁:OR,0.46;95%CI,0.33-0.65;年龄在 75-84 岁:OR,0.27;95%CI,0.18-0.40;年龄在 85 岁以上:OR,0.21;95%CI,0.13-0.34)和拥有医疗补助(OR,0.74;95%CI,0.56-0.99)的人被 ICU 收治的可能性较低。种族/族裔、拥挤程度、人口密度和卫生系统普查与研究结果无关。
年龄增长是死亡率的最大独立危险因素。合并症和严重疾病与死亡率独立相关。了解这些危险因素可以为 COVID-19 老年患者的医疗决策提供指导。年龄较大的成年人和从熟练护理机构转来的患者被 ICU 收治的可能性要低一半。这一发现需要进一步调查,以了解年龄和治疗偏好如何影响资源分配。