Department of Social, Cultural, and Justice Studies, 14733University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, Chattanooga, TN, USA.
J Interpers Violence. 2022 Dec;37(23-24):NP23397-NP23418. doi: 10.1177/08862605221078813. Epub 2022 Mar 2.
Recent literature has described a rise in the activity of right-wing extremists in the United States. Several studies have examined this phenomenon in relation to the actions of President Trump. Comparatively, little research has examined the impact of the Obama presidency on right-wing extremism despite a peak in the number of right-wing extremist groups during his second term. Using a power-threat framework, this study examines the unique effects of the presidential candidacies and elections of Obama and Trump on the frequency of attacks committed by right-wing extremists in the U.S. as documented in the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling is applied to monthly counts ( = 151) of 141 domestic terrorist attacks committed by right-wing extremists that occurred in the U.S. between June 3, 2006, and December 31, 2018. Consistent with the political threat hypothesis, our findings indicate that the re-election of President Obama was associated with a gradual, permanent increase in the frequency of attacks by right-wing extremists. Yet, none of the intervention components associated with his first candidacy or election were associated with statistically significant changes in right-wing terrorist attacks. In contrast, and in accordance with the emboldenment hypothesis, all intervention components associated with the candidacy and election of Donald Trump predicted permanent increases in the frequency of attacks-and most were abrupt in nature. In view of these findings, political leaders on the left and right must anticipate the ability of their rhetoric and behavior to both alienate and embolden extremist groups and individuals, particularly within the far-right. As our findings demonstrate, failure to do so risks contributing to increased activity among far-right extremists as a product of either political threat or emboldenment.
最近的文献描述了美国右翼极端分子活动的增加。有几项研究考察了这一现象与特朗普总统的行动之间的关系。相比之下，尽管在奥巴马总统第二任期内右翼极端组织的数量达到峰值，但几乎没有研究考察奥巴马总统任期对右翼极端主义的影响。本研究使用权力威胁框架，考察了奥巴马和特朗普总统竞选和选举对美国全球恐怖主义数据库（GTD）记录的右翼极端分子袭击频率的独特影响。自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型应用于 2006 年 6 月 3 日至 2018 年 12 月 31 日期间在美国发生的 141 起由右翼极端分子实施的 141 起国内恐怖袭击的每月计数（n = 151）。与政治威胁假设一致，我们的研究结果表明，奥巴马总统连任与右翼极端分子袭击频率的逐渐、永久性增加有关。然而，与他第一次竞选或选举相关的干预因素都与右翼恐怖袭击没有统计学上的显著变化有关。相比之下，根据壮胆假设，与唐纳德·特朗普的竞选和选举相关的所有干预因素都预示着右翼恐怖袭击频率的永久性增加，而且大多数都是突然的。鉴于这些发现，左派和右派的政治领导人必须预料到他们的言论和行为既能疏远又能壮胆极端团体和个人，尤其是极右翼的团体和个人。正如我们的研究结果所示，不这样做可能会导致极右翼极端分子因政治威胁或壮胆而增加活动。
