Bailey Martha J, Bart Lea, Lang Vanessa Wanner
Department of Economics, University of California Los Angeles, 315 Portola Plaza, Bunche Hall 9349, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA.
Department of Economics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA.
Popul Res Policy Rev. 2022;41(4):1549-1569. doi: 10.1007/s11113-022-09703-9. Epub 2022 Mar 2.
Multiple episodes in US history demonstrate that birth rates fall in response to recessions. However, the 2020 COVID-19 recession differed from earlier periods in that employment access to contraception and abortion fell, as reproductive health centers across the country temporarily closed or reduced their capacity. This paper exploits novel survey and administrative data to examine how reductions in access to reproductive health care during 2020 affected contraceptive efficacy among low-income women. Accounting for 2020's reductions in access to contraception and the economic slowdown, our results predict a modest decline in births of 1.1 percent in 2021 for low-income women. Further accounting for reductions in access to abortion implies that birth rates may even rise for low-income women. These results also suggest that already economically disadvantaged families disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 economy will experience a large increase in unplanned births.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-022-09703-9.
美国历史上的多个事件表明，出生率会因经济衰退而下降。然而，2020年的新冠疫情衰退与早期不同，因为就业机会、避孕措施和堕胎服务的可及性下降，全国各地的生殖健康中心暂时关闭或减少了服务能力。本文利用新的调查和行政数据，研究2020年生殖健康护理可及性的下降如何影响低收入女性的避孕效果。考虑到2020年避孕措施可及性的下降和经济放缓，我们的结果预测，2021年低收入女性的出生率将适度下降1.1%。进一步考虑堕胎服务可及性的下降意味着，低收入女性的出生率甚至可能上升。这些结果还表明，已经在经济上处于不利地位、受新冠疫情经济影响尤甚的家庭，意外生育的情况将大幅增加。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s11113-022-09703-9获取的补充材料。
