Machlis Gary E, Román Miguel O, Pickett Steward T A
Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA.
Universities Space Research Association, Washington, DC, USA.
Sci Adv. 2022 Mar 11;8(10):eabk2458. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abk2458. Epub 2022 Mar 9.
Disaster science examines the causes, behaviors, and consequences of hazardous events, from hurricanes to wildfires, flooding, and major industrial accidents. Individual disasters are recurring more frequently and with greater intensity. Recurrent acute disasters (RADs) are sequential disasters that affect a specific locale over time. While disaster science has matured in recent years, understanding of the distinctive characteristics of RADs varies by discipline and lacks predictive power. A theoretical framework is presented by borrowing in part from mathematical topology and disturbance ecology. The recurrent disasters affecting Puerto Rico 2017-2020 are examined as a case example to test the framework. A key variable is the complex characteristics of legacy conditions created by one disaster that influence the effects of subsequent disasters. Substantial improvements in disaster response, recovery, and preparedness can be gained by adopting a RAD-based approach.
灾害科学研究从飓风到野火、洪水和重大工业事故等危险事件的成因、行为和后果。个别灾害发生得越来越频繁，强度也越来越大。反复发生的急性灾害（RADs）是随着时间推移影响特定地区的连续性灾害。尽管灾害科学近年来已经成熟，但对RADs独特特征的理解因学科而异，且缺乏预测能力。本文部分借鉴数学拓扑学和干扰生态学提出了一个理论框架。以2017 - 2020年影响波多黎各的反复发生的灾害为例来检验该框架。一个关键变量是一次灾害造成的遗留状况的复杂特征，这些特征会影响后续灾害的影响。采用基于RADs的方法可以在灾害应对、恢复和准备方面取得实质性改进。
