Hochrainer-Stigler Stefan, Trogrlić Šakić Robert, Reiter Karina, Ward Philip J, de Ruiter Marleen C, Duncan Melanie J, Torresan Silvia, Ciurean Roxana, Mysiak Jaroslav, Stuparu Dana, Gottardo Stefania
Systemic Risk and Resilience Research Group, International Institute for Applied System Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
iScience. 2023 Apr 26;26(5):106736. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106736. eCollection 2023 May 19.
In our increasingly interconnected world, natural hazards and their impacts spread across geographical, administrative, and sectoral boundaries. Owing to the interrelationships between multi-hazards and socio-economic dimensions, the impacts of these types of events can surmount those of multiple single hazards. The complexities involved in tackling multi-hazards and multi-risks hinder a more holistic and integrative perspective and make it difficult to identify overarching dimensions important for assessment and management purposes. We contribute to this discussion by building on systemic risk research, especially the focus on interconnectedness, and suggest ways forward for an integrated multi-hazard and multi-risk framework that should be beneficial in real-world applications. In this article, we propose a six-step framework for analyzing and managing risk across a spectrum ranging from single-to multi- and systemic risk.
在我们这个日益相互关联的世界中，自然灾害及其影响跨越地理、行政和部门边界。由于多种灾害与社会经济层面之间存在相互关系，这类事件的影响可能超过多种单一灾害的影响。应对多种灾害和多重风险所涉及的复杂性阻碍了形成更全面和综合的视角，并且难以确定对评估和管理目的至关重要的总体层面。我们以系统性风险研究为基础，特别是对相互关联性的关注，来推动这一讨论，并提出一个综合的多灾害和多重风险框架的前进方向，这在实际应用中应该会有所助益。在本文中，我们提出了一个六步框架，用于分析和管理从单一风险到多重风险及系统性风险范围内的风险。
