Predictors of laminitis development in a cohort of nonlaminitic ponies.

BACKGROUND

Quantifying risk factors for laminitis development requires improvement.

OBJECTIVES

To identify the most useful physical examination, metabolic and management factors to predict laminitis development in client-owned, nonlaminitic ponies.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

METHODS

Physical examination, metabolic and management data were collected from a pony cohort 6 monthly for up to 4 years. Ponies were monitored for the development of laminitis. Metabolic data included basal plasma concentrations of ACTH ([ACTH]), adiponectin ([adiponectin]), triglycerides and glucose. Serum insulin concentrations ([insulin]) were measured in the unfasted basal state ([insulin]T0) and 60 minutes ([insulin]T60) after administration of corn syrup (0.3ml/kg). Separate multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models were developed for physical, management/signalment and metabolic data and later combined into two final models. Low-, medium- and high-laminitis risk categories were defined based on basal or T60 [insulin].

RESULTS

Overall, 374 ponies (age 5-32 years) and 891 pony-years were included in the main analysis. Laminitis incidence (95% confidence interval (CI)) was 4.8 (3.5-6.5) cases/100 pony-years. Laminitis development was associated with numerous univariable factors. Significant (P < .05) factors retained in the final multivariable models included [insulin]T0, [insulin]T60, [adiponectin] and divergent hoof growth. [ACTH] was not independently associated with laminitis. Based on [Insulin]T0, low- (<21.6 µIU/ml), medium- (21.6-45.2 µIU/ml) and high-risk (>45.2 µIU/ml) categories encompassed 70, 20 and 10% of the population and had estimated 4-year laminitis incidences (95%CI) of 6 (2-9)%, 22 (10-33)% and 69 (48-82)% respectively. Based on [Insulin]T60 the low- (<53.4 µIU/ml), medium- (53.4-153 µIU/ml) and high-risk (≥153 µIU/ml) categories comprised 60, 30 and 10% of the population and had estimated 4-year laminitis incidences (95%CI) of 3 (0-6)%, 20 (10-29)% and 73 (52-84)% respectively.

MAIN LIMITATIONS

Results may not apply to different insulin assays, geographical regions, breeds or management types.

CONCLUSIONS

[Insulin]T0 or [insulin]T60 best quantify the risk of future laminitis development in nonlaminitic ponies.