König-Castillo Deirdre Maria, Ott Johannes, König Daniel, Hager Marlene, Kahr Maike Katja, Dorffner Georg
Department of Urology, Medical University of Vienna, 1090 Vienna, Austria.
Clinical Division of Gynecologic Endocrinology and Reproductive Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Medical University of Vienna, 1090 Vienna, Austria.
J Clin Med. 2022 Feb 22;11(5):1152. doi: 10.3390/jcm11051152.
Background: The rationale of a postulated decrease in fertility rate development is still being debated. Among the multiple influencing factors, socioeconomic variables and their complex influence are of particular interest. Methods: Data on socioeconomic and health variables from 1976−2014 of 30 countries within the OECD region were analysed for their respective influence on fertility rates by using mixed-effect regression models. Results: A significant negative influence of the increase in unemployment rate on the following year’s changes in fertility rate in Western (−0.00256; p < 0.001) as well as Eastern European (−0.0034; p < 0.001) countries was revealed. The effect of being overweight was significant for Western European (−0.00256; p < 0.001) countries only. When analysing the whole OECD region, an increase in unemployment retained its significant negative influence on the fertility rate (−0.0028; p < 0.001), while being overweight did not. Interestingly, divergent influences of time were revealed and fertility rates increased with time in Eastern Europe while they decreased in Western Europe. Conclusion: Importantly, a significant negative influence of increase in unemployment on the fertility rate was revealed—irrespective of the region and time analysed. Furthermore, an adverse effect of being overweight on the fertility rate in Western European countries was revealed. Interestingly, time was associated with a decreasing fertility rate in Western but not in Eastern Europe.
生育率下降这一假设的合理性仍在争论中。在众多影响因素中，社会经济变量及其复杂影响尤为引人关注。方法：利用混合效应回归模型，分析了经合组织地区30个国家1976 - 2014年社会经济和健康变量对生育率的各自影响。结果：失业率上升对西欧国家（-0.00256；p < 0.001）以及东欧国家（-0.0034；p < 0.001）次年生育率变化有显著负面影响。超重的影响仅在西欧国家显著（-0.00256；p < 0.001）。在分析整个经合组织地区时，失业率上升对生育率仍有显著负面影响（-0.0028；p < 0.001），而超重则无此影响。有趣的是，研究发现了时间的不同影响，东欧的生育率随时间上升，而西欧的生育率随时间下降。结论：重要的是，研究发现失业率上升对生育率有显著负面影响——无论所分析的地区和时间如何。此外，还发现超重对西欧国家的生育率有不利影响。有趣的是，时间与西欧生育率下降相关，但与东欧无关。
