Health Information Systems Service, Barcelona Agency of Public Health, Barcelona, Spain.
Area of Research and Teaching, Public Health Agency of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Experimental and Health Sciences, University Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain.
Gac Sanit. 2020 May-Jun;34(3):238-244. doi: 10.1016/j.gaceta.2019.05.011. Epub 2019 Oct 19.
To describe trends in fertility in Spain before (pre-recession; 1998-2008) and during (recession period; 2009-2013) the economic crisis of 2008, taking into account women's age and regional unemployment in 2010.
The study consisted of a panel design including cross-sectional ecological data for the 17 regions of Spain. We describe fertility trends in Spain in two time periods, pre-recession (1998-2008) and recession (2009-2013). We used a cross-sectional, ecological study of Spanish-born women to calculate changes in fertility rates for each period using a linear regression model adjusted for year, period, and interaction between them.
We found that compared to the pre-recession period, the fertility rate in Spain generally decreased during the economic recession. However, in some regions, such as the Canary Islands, this decrease began before the onset of the recession, while in other regions, such as the Basque country, the fertility rate continued to grow until 2011. The effects of the recession on the fertility rate are clearly observed in women aged 30-34 years.
The current economic recession has disrupted the positive trend in fertility that began at the start of this century. Since Spain already had very low fertility rates, the further decline caused by the economic recession could jeopardize the sustainability of welfare-state systems.
描述 2008 年经济危机前（衰退前；1998-2008 年）和期间（2009-2013 年经济衰退期间）西班牙的生育趋势，并考虑到 2010 年女性年龄和地区失业率。
该研究采用面板设计，包括西班牙 17 个地区的横断面生态数据。我们在两个时期描述了西班牙的生育趋势，即衰退前（1998-2008 年）和衰退（2009-2013 年）。我们使用西班牙出生女性的横断面、生态研究，使用线性回归模型调整年份、时期以及它们之间的相互作用，计算每个时期的生育率变化。
我们发现，与衰退前时期相比，西班牙的生育率在经济衰退期间普遍下降。然而，在一些地区，如加那利群岛，这种下降在经济衰退开始之前就已经开始，而在其他地区，如巴斯克地区，生育率一直持续到 2011 年才增长。经济衰退对 30-34 岁女性生育率的影响明显。
当前的经济衰退打乱了本世纪初开始的生育积极趋势。由于西班牙已经有非常低的生育率，经济衰退造成的进一步下降可能危及福利国家制度的可持续性。
