Raymo James M, Shibata Akihisa
Department of Sociology and Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI, 53706, USA.
Kyoto Institute for Economic Research, Kyoto University, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, 606-8501, Japan.
Demography. 2017 Dec;54(6):2301-2329. doi: 10.1007/s13524-017-0614-y.
In this study, we examine relationships of unemployment and nonstandard employment with fertility. We focus on Japan, a country characterized by a prolonged economic downturn, significant increases in both unemployment and nonstandard employment, a strong link between marriage and childbearing, and pronounced gender differences in economic roles and opportunities. Analyses of retrospective employment, marriage, and fertility data for the period 1990-2006 indicate that changing employment circumstances for men are associated with lower levels of marriage, while changes in women's employment are associated with higher levels of marital fertility. The latter association outweighs the former, and results of counterfactual standardization analyses indicate that Japan's total fertility rate would have been 10 % to 20 % lower than the observed rate after 1995 if aggregate- and individual-level employment conditions had remained unchanged from the 1980s. We discuss the implications of these results in light of ongoing policy efforts to promote family formation and research on temporal and regional variation in men's and women's roles within the family.
在本研究中，我们考察了失业和非标准就业与生育之间的关系。我们聚焦于日本，该国具有经济长期低迷、失业和非标准就业显著增加、婚姻与生育之间存在紧密联系以及经济角色和机会方面存在明显性别差异等特征。对1990 - 2006年期间回顾性就业、婚姻和生育数据的分析表明，男性就业情况的变化与较低的结婚率相关，而女性就业的变化与较高的婚内生育率相关。后一种关联超过了前一种关联，反事实标准化分析结果表明，如果从20世纪80年代起总体和个体层面的就业条件保持不变，那么1995年之后日本的总和生育率将比观察到的生育率低10%至20%。我们根据当前促进家庭组建的政策努力以及关于家庭中男性和女性角色的时间和区域差异的研究，讨论了这些结果的含义。
