Establishment and validation of prognostic nomograms to predict the overall and cancer-specific survival in patients with hepatic malignant vascular tumors.

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the clinicopathologic features and to investigate the prognostic nomograms for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with Hepatic malignant vascular tumors (HMVT).

METHOD

Patients diagnosed with HMVT between 1973 and 2015 were screened from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The Kaplan-Meier (KM) was used for survival analysis. The univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to identify independent predictors. Furthermore, the prognostic nomograms were established and evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 510 HMVT patients were collected, and randomly divided into HMVT-training (N=308) and validation cohort (N=202) groups. The 3- and 5-year OS for overall HMVT were 21.3% and 19.8%, and the corresponding CSS was 29.8% and 27.7% respectively. Age at diagnosis, grade, tumor size, and histological type were identified as prognostic factors for OS and CSS in patients with HMVT. However, sex was just for predicting CSS, and T stage was only an indicator of OS. These factors were further utilized to construct the nomograms for OS and CSS in the HMVT-training cohort showing credible performance with the C-index of 0.763 and 0.762, respectively. Moreover, the AUC value for 1-, 3-, 5-year OS was 0.873, 0.905 and 0.898, and the corresponding value for CSS was 0.808, 0.794 and 0.788 respectively. Additionally, the calibration curves demonstrated a favorable agreement between the predicted and actual 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates both in the training and validated cohorts.

CONCLUSION

This was the largest population-based study to describe the clinicopathologic characteristics in patients with HMVT. Moreover, we established and validated prognostic nomograms that indicated an accurate prediction for 1-, 3- and 5-year of OS and CSS.