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Construction and validation of a prognostic nomogram in metastatic breast cancer patients of childbearing age: A study based on the SEER database and a Chinese cohort.

作者信息

Ma Xiang, Xing Yapeng, Li Zeying, Qiu Shun, Wu Wenzhao, Bai Jinfeng

机构信息

Yunnan Cancer Hospital, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China.

出版信息

Front Oncol. 2022 Nov 25;12:999873. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2022.999873. eCollection 2022.


DOI:10.3389/fonc.2022.999873
PMID:36505800
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9732809/
Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Cancer in patients of childbearing age continues to become increasingly common. The purpose of this study was to explore the impact of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) on overall survival (OS) and cancer-specifific survival (CSS) in patients of childbearing age and to construct prognostic nomograms to predict OS and CSS. METHODS: Data from MBC patients of childbearing age were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2015, and the patients were randomly assigned into the training and validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to search for independent prognostic factors impacting OS and CSS, and these data were used to construct nomograms. The concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), and calibration curves were used to determine the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomograms. Additional data were obtained from patients at the Yunnan Cancer Hospital to further verify the accuracy of the nomograms. RESULTS: A total of 1,700 MBC patients of childbearing age were identifified from the SEER database, and an additional 92 eligible patients were enrolled at the Yunnan Cancer Hospital. Multivariate Cox analyses identifified 10 prognostic factors for OS and CSS that were used to construct the nomograms. The calibration curve for the probabilities of OS and CSS showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and clinical observations. The C-index of the nomogram for OS was 0.735 (95% CI = 0.725-0.744); the AUC at 3 years was 0.806 and 0.794 at 5 years.The nomogram predicted that the C-index of the CSS was 0.740 (95% CI = 0.730- 0.750); the AUC at 3 years was 0.811 and 0.789 at 5 years. The same results were observed in the validation cohort. Kaplan- Meier curves comparing the low-,medium-, and high-risk groups showed strong prediction results for the prognostic nomogram. CONCLUSION: We identifified several independent prognostic factors and constructed nomograms to predict the OS and CSS for MBC patients of childbearing age.These prognostic models should be considered in clinical practice to individualize treatments for this group of patients.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3157/9732809/8f72b08174bc/fonc-12-999873-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3157/9732809/212704963e01/fonc-12-999873-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3157/9732809/d4979b18dd78/fonc-12-999873-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3157/9732809/24ebc2cc0eb8/fonc-12-999873-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3157/9732809/3b2670f2a39e/fonc-12-999873-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3157/9732809/8f72b08174bc/fonc-12-999873-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3157/9732809/212704963e01/fonc-12-999873-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3157/9732809/d4979b18dd78/fonc-12-999873-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3157/9732809/24ebc2cc0eb8/fonc-12-999873-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3157/9732809/3b2670f2a39e/fonc-12-999873-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3157/9732809/8f72b08174bc/fonc-12-999873-g005.jpg

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引用本文的文献

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Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for ovarian clear cell carcinoma: a study based on the SEER database and a Chinese cohort.

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本文引用的文献

[1]
The prognostic role of surgery and a nomogram to predict the survival of stage IV breast cancer patients.

Gland Surg. 2022-7

[2]
Clinical Features and Serological Markers Risk Model Predicts Overall Survival in Patients Undergoing Breast Cancer and Bone Metastasis Surgeries.

Front Oncol. 2021-9-17

[3]
Prevalence and prognosis of molecular phenotypes in breast cancer patients by age: a population-based retrospective cohort study in western Algeria.

Pan Afr Med J. 2021

[4]
Construction and Validation of Nomograms Predicting Survival in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Patients of Childbearing Age.

Front Oncol. 2021-2-8

[5]
Marital Status and Prognostic Nomogram for Bladder Cancer With Distant Metastasis: A SEER-Based Study.

Front Oncol. 2020-10-27

[6]
A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer: a population-based study.

BMC Cancer. 2020-10-12

[7]
Nomogram for predicting overall survival of patients with bladder cancer: A population-based study.

Int J Biol Markers. 2020-6

[8]
How Important is the Timing of Radioiodine Ablation in Differentiated Thyroidal Carcinomas: A Referral Centre Experience.

Rev Esp Med Nucl Imagen Mol (Engl Ed). 2020

[9]
Breast cancer tumor histopathology, stage at presentation, and treatment in the extremes of age.

Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2020-1-24

[10]
Identification of a 4-mRNA metastasis-related prognostic signature for patients with breast cancer.

J Cell Mol Med. 2018-11-28

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