Niels Bohr Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Department of Science and Environment, Roskilde University, Roskilde, Denmark.
PLoS One. 2022 Mar 14;17(3):e0264425. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264425. eCollection 2022.
The West African Ebola (2014-2016) epidemic caused an estimated 11.310 deaths and massive social and economic disruption. The epidemic was comprised of many local outbreaks of varying sizes. However, often local outbreaks recede before the arrival of international aid or susceptible depletion. We modeled Ebola virus transmission under the effect of behavior changes acting as a local inhibitor. A spatial model is used to simulate Ebola epidemics. Our findings suggest that behavior changes can explain why local Ebola outbreaks recede before substantial international aid was mobilized during the 2014-2016 epidemic.
西非埃博拉（2014-2016 年）疫情造成约 11310 人死亡，并对社会和经济造成严重破坏。疫情由许多规模不同的局部暴发组成。然而，在国际援助到来或易感人群减少之前，当地疫情往往会消退。我们在行为变化作为局部抑制剂的作用下模拟了埃博拉病毒的传播。我们使用空间模型来模拟埃博拉疫情。我们的研究结果表明，行为变化可以解释为什么在 2014-2016 年疫情期间，在大量国际援助动员之前，当地埃博拉疫情会消退。
