Dudas Gytis, Carvalho Luiz Max, Bedford Trevor, Tatem Andrew J, Baele Guy, Faria Nuno R, Park Daniel J, Ladner Jason T, Arias Armando, Asogun Danny, Bielejec Filip, Caddy Sarah L, Cotten Matthew, D'Ambrozio Jonathan, Dellicour Simon, Di Caro Antonino, Diclaro Joseph W, Duraffour Sophie, Elmore Michael J, Fakoli Lawrence S, Faye Ousmane, Gilbert Merle L, Gevao Sahr M, Gire Stephen, Gladden-Young Adrianne, Gnirke Andreas, Goba Augustine, Grant Donald S, Haagmans Bart L, Hiscox Julian A, Jah Umaru, Kugelman Jeffrey R, Liu Di, Lu Jia, Malboeuf Christine M, Mate Suzanne, Matthews David A, Matranga Christian B, Meredith Luke W, Qu James, Quick Joshua, Pas Suzan D, Phan My V T, Pollakis Georgios, Reusken Chantal B, Sanchez-Lockhart Mariano, Schaffner Stephen F, Schieffelin John S, Sealfon Rachel S, Simon-Loriere Etienne, Smits Saskia L, Stoecker Kilian, Thorne Lucy, Tobin Ekaete Alice, Vandi Mohamed A, Watson Simon J, West Kendra, Whitmer Shannon, Wiley Michael R, Winnicki Sarah M, Wohl Shirlee, Wölfel Roman, Yozwiak Nathan L, Andersen Kristian G, Blyden Sylvia O, Bolay Fatorma, Carroll Miles W, Dahn Bernice, Diallo Boubacar, Formenty Pierre, Fraser Christophe, Gao George F, Garry Robert F, Goodfellow Ian, Günther Stephan, Happi Christian T, Holmes Edward C, Kargbo Brima, Keïta Sakoba, Kellam Paul, Koopmans Marion P G, Kuhn Jens H, Loman Nicholas J, Magassouba N'Faly, Naidoo Dhamari, Nichol Stuart T, Nyenswah Tolbert, Palacios Gustavo, Pybus Oliver G, Sabeti Pardis C, Sall Amadou, Ströher Ute, Wurie Isatta, Suchard Marc A, Lemey Philippe, Rambaut Andrew
Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, King's Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK.
Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington 98109, USA.
Nature. 2017 Apr 20;544(7650):309-315. doi: 10.1038/nature22040. Epub 2017 Apr 12.
The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic 'gravity' model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics.
2013 - 2016年由埃博拉病毒引发的西非疫情在规模、持续时间和影响方面都史无前例。在此，我们通过分析1610个埃博拉病毒基因组（占已知病例的5%以上），重构了埃博拉病毒在整个地区的传播、扩散及衰退情况。我们检验了地理、气候和人口因素与行政区之间病毒传播的关联，推断出一个经典的“引力”模型，即规模较大且距离较近的人群之间传播强烈。尽管边境关闭后国际传播有所减弱，但跨境传播已经为国际疫情埋下了种子，使得这些措施在遏制疫情方面失效。我们探讨了疫情为何没有蔓延到邻国，表明这些国家虽易遭受大规模疫情爆发，但引入病毒的风险较低。最后，我们揭示出这场大规模疫情是由规模、持续时间和连通性各异的传播集群组成的异质性且空间上分散的集合。这些见解将有助于为未来疫情的干预措施提供参考。
