Krysiński Dawid, Uss-Lik Aneta
Department of Sociology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Szamarzewskiego 89, 60-568 Poznań, Poland.
Institute of Sociology, University of Wrocław, Koszarowa 3, 51-149 Wrocław, Poland.
Case Stud Transp Policy. 2022 Jun;10(2):891-904. doi: 10.1016/j.cstp.2022.03.004. Epub 2022 Mar 9.
This article shows that current expenditure allocated by local authorities for the routine maintenance of public transport (i.e., providing passengers with clean and frequent services) is crucial to effectively limit the modal shift from public transit to private cars during the Covid-19 pandemic. In our analysis, we define public transport as the bus, tram, metro and trolley operations which are ordered and funded by 11 local authorities in Poland; we also assume that the modal shift is reflected in the growth of traffic congestion. Taking into account these assumptions and considering the long-term financial data from 2010 to 2020, we then conduct hierarchical linear regression and state that cities with a higher share of current expenses in cities' total annual transport expenditure have registered during the pandemic a lower number of weeks with congestion level exceeding the pre-pandemic level. We argue that this is due to the allocation of current expenditure to cleaning services and the transport service supply, which could have a significant impact on perceptions of crowding and safety on public transport. Both issues belong to the essential determinants of the quality of public transport services and could play a key role in mitigating the modal shift by reducing the fear of catching Covid-19. In contrast to this finding, we also show that investment expenditure (allocated to improvements of transport infrastructure) does not have a similar impact on the congestion during the pandemic. In this context, we emphasise that cutting spending on cleaning services and the transport supply service as a response to the reduced number of passengers would be more devastating for public transport than postponing new infrastructure investments. Based on the results achieved in the analysis, we provide recommendations for local authorities that can help implement new funding models and reframe local transport policy, namely: (1) close the funding gap resulting from lower revenues to local budgets, (2) provide resources for maintaining the infrastructure investments and adapting them to a "new normality", (3) maintain the attractiveness of public transport post-Covid.
本文表明，地方当局为公共交通日常维护（即向乘客提供清洁且班次频繁的服务）分配的当前支出，对于在新冠疫情期间有效限制从公共交通向私家车的出行方式转变至关重要。在我们的分析中，我们将公共交通定义为由波兰11个地方当局安排和资助的公交、有轨电车、地铁及无轨电车运营；我们还假设出行方式的转变反映在交通拥堵的加剧上。考虑到这些假设并参考2010年至2020年的长期财务数据，我们随后进行分层线性回归，并指出在年度交通总支出中当前支出占比更高的城市，在疫情期间拥堵水平超过疫情前水平的周数较少。我们认为这是由于将当前支出用于清洁服务和运输服务供应，这可能会对公共交通上的拥挤感和安全感产生重大影响。这两个问题都属于公共交通服务质量的基本决定因素，并且在通过减少感染新冠病毒的恐惧来缓解出行方式转变方面可能发挥关键作用。与这一发现形成对比的是，我们还表明投资支出（用于改善交通基础设施）在疫情期间对拥堵没有类似影响。在此背景下，我们强调，作为对乘客数量减少的应对措施，削减清洁服务和运输供应服务的支出对公共交通的破坏将比推迟新的基础设施投资更大。基于分析得出的结果，我们为地方当局提供了一些建议，这些建议有助于实施新的资金模式并重新制定地方交通政策，即：（1）弥补地方预算收入减少导致的资金缺口；（2）为维护基础设施投资并使其适应“新常态”提供资源；（3）在新冠疫情后保持公共交通的吸引力。
