新冠疫情与荷兰“智能封锁”如何改变活动、工作和出行行为:来自荷兰纵向数据的证据
How COVID-19 and the Dutch 'intelligent lockdown' change activities, work and travel behaviour: Evidence from longitudinal data in the Netherlands.
作者信息
de Haas Mathijs, Faber Roel, Hamersma Marije
机构信息
KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis, Bezuidenhoutseweg 20, 2594 AV The Hague, the Netherlands.
出版信息
Transp Res Interdiscip Perspect. 2020 Jul;6:100150. doi: 10.1016/j.trip.2020.100150. Epub 2020 Jun 10.
COVID-19 has massively affected the lives of people all over the world. This paper presents first insights in current and potential future effects of the virus and the Dutch government's 'intelligent lockdown' on people's activities and travel behaviour. Findings are based on a representative sample of about 2500 respondents from the Netherlands Mobility Panel (MPN). We show that approximately 80% of people reduced their activities outdoors, with a stronger decrease for older people. 44% of workers started or increased the amount of hours working from home and 30% have more remote meetings. Most of these workers report positive experiences. Students and school pupils, however, are mostly not happy with following education from home. Furthermore, the amount of trips and distance travelled dropped by 55% and 68% respectively when compared to the fall of 2019. So-called 'roundtrips' (e.g. a walking or cycling tour) gained in popularity. People are currently more positive towards the car and far more negative towards public transport. Changes in outdoor activities seem to be temporal, with over 90% of people who currently reduced their outdoor activities not expecting to continue this behaviour in the future after corona. However, 27% of home-workers expect to work from home more often in the future. In addition, 20% of people expect to cycle and walk more and 20% expect to fly less in the future. These findings show that the coronavirus crisis might result in structural behavioural changes, although future longitudinal analyses are needed to observe these possible structural effects.
新冠疫情对全球人民的生活产生了巨大影响。本文首次深入探讨了该病毒以及荷兰政府的“智能封锁”措施对人们活动和出行行为当前及未来可能产生的影响。研究结果基于荷兰出行面板(MPN)约2500名受访者的代表性样本。我们发现,约80%的人减少了户外活动,老年人的减少幅度更大。44%的上班族开始或增加了在家工作的时长,30%的人参加了更多远程会议。这些上班族大多反馈了积极的体验。然而,学生和中小学生大多对在家接受教育不满意。此外,与2019年秋季相比,出行次数和出行距离分别下降了55%和68%。所谓的“往返行程”(如徒步或骑行之旅)更受欢迎。人们目前对汽车的态度更为积极,而对公共交通的态度则更为消极。户外活动的变化似乎是暂时的,目前减少户外活动的人中,超过90%的人预计新冠疫情过后不会继续保持这种行为。然而,27%的在家工作者预计未来会更频繁地在家工作。此外,20%的人预计未来会增加骑行和步行次数,20%的人预计未来会减少飞行次数。这些研究结果表明,新冠病毒危机可能会导致行为结构发生变化,不过需要未来的纵向分析来观察这些可能的结构影响。
相似文献
Transp Res Interdiscip Perspect. 2020-7
Transp Res Interdiscip Perspect. 2021-12
Transp Res Part A Policy Pract. 2022-2
Travel Behav Soc. 2023-1
Travel Behav Soc. 2023-10
Transp Policy (Oxf). 2021-10
引用本文的文献
Eur Transp Res Rev. 2021
本文引用的文献
N Engl J Med. 2020-1-24