Wang Shuo, Liu Chao, Hou Yuting, Xue Xiongzhi
College of the Environment & Ecology, Xiamen University, 361102, China.
College of the Environment & Ecology, Xiamen University, 361102, China; Coastal and Ocean Management Institute, Xiamen University, 361102, China.
J Environ Manage. 2022 Jun 15;312:114905. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114905. Epub 2022 Mar 17.
Marine spatial planning (MSP), which is a step-by-step approach for the ecosystem-based management (EBM) of global oceans, enables human activity and marine and coastal ecosystems conservation to occur simultaneously. It contributes to the implementation of the 2030 Agenda, particularly Sustainable Development Goal 14. However, the MSP, supposed as a transboundary policy-making process, is hampered by obstacles. Although existing studies have revealed significant obstacles and enablers for transboundary marine spatial planning (TMSP), they have not analyzed how these factors affect government decision-making. To fill this gap, this paper takes the Xiamen-Kinmen Sea area in China as an example and analyses the interaction between the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou (XZQ) governments, the Kinmen government, and an introduced transboundary institution using evolutionary game theory. Numerical simulation is used to analyse the impact of influencing factors on the behaviors of different actors. The results demonstrate that: (1) the initial probability of the three parties directly affect the final stability; (2) net benefits have a positive incentivizing effect on the performance of the Promotion Group; (3) the value of eco-environmental losses reflects the urgency of collaborative governance by implementing TMSP; (4) transaction costs do not undermine collaboration, but do reduce the willingness of governments to participate if they are too high; and (5) the appropriate value of the transaction cost allocation coefficient should not exceed 0.9. This research may serve as an essential reference for the Xiamen-Kinmen Sea area for implementing EBM and provide general insights into the design of incentive policy recommendations for other regions for developing TMSP in shared waters.
海洋空间规划（MSP）是一种对全球海洋进行基于生态系统管理（EBM）的循序渐进的方法，它能使人类活动与海洋及沿海生态系统保护同时进行。它有助于落实《2030年议程》，特别是可持续发展目标14。然而，作为一个跨界决策过程的海洋空间规划却受到诸多障碍的阻碍。尽管现有研究揭示了跨界海洋空间规划（TMSP）的重大障碍和推动因素，但尚未分析这些因素如何影响政府决策。为填补这一空白，本文以中国厦门-金门海域为例，运用演化博弈理论分析了厦门-漳州-泉州（XZQ）政府、金门政府以及引入的一个跨界机构之间的互动。通过数值模拟分析影响因素对不同行为主体行为的影响。结果表明：（1）三方的初始概率直接影响最终稳定性；（2）净收益对促进组的绩效有正向激励作用；（3）生态环境损失值反映了实施跨界海洋空间规划进行协同治理的紧迫性；（4）交易成本不会破坏合作，但过高时会降低政府参与的意愿；（5）交易成本分配系数的适宜值不应超过0.9。本研究可为厦门-金门海域实施基于生态系统的管理提供重要参考，并为其他地区在共享水域开展跨界海洋空间规划的激励政策建议设计提供一般性见解。
