College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China; Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Bremerhaven, 27572, Germany.
Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Bremerhaven, 27572, Germany.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Sep 15;342:118165. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118165. Epub 2023 May 16.
Cumulative effects assessment (CEA) should be conducted at ecologically meaningful scales such as large marine ecosystems to halt further ocean degradation caused by anthropogenic pressures and facilitate ecosystem-based management such as transboundary marine spatial planning (MSP). However, few studies exist at large marine ecosystems scale, especially in the West Pacific seas, where countries have different MSP processes yet transboundary cooperation is paramount. Thus, a step-wise CEA would be informative to help bordering countries set a common goal. Building on the risk-based CEA framework, we decomposed CEA into risk identification and spatially-explicit risk analysis and applied it to the Yellow Sea Large Marine Ecosystem (YSLME), aiming to understand the most influential cause-effect pathways and risk distribution pattern. The results showed that (1) seven human activities including port, mariculture, fishing, industry and urban development, shipping, energy, and coastal defence, and three pressures including physical loss of seabed, input of hazardous substances, nitrogen, and phosphorus enrichment were the leading causes of environmental problems in the YSLME; (2) benthic organisms, fishes, algae, tidal flats, seabirds, and marine mammals were the most vulnerable ecosystem components on which cumulative effects acted; (3) areas with relatively high risk mainly concentrated on nearshore zones, especially Shandong, Liaoning, and northern Jiangsu, while coastal bays of South Korea also witnessed high risk; (4) certain risks could be observed in the transboundary area, of which the causes were the pervasive fishing, shipping, and sinking of pollutants in this area due to the cyclonic circulation and fine-grained sediments. In future transboundary cooperation on MSP, risk criteria and evaluation of existing management measures should be incorporated to determine whether the identified risk has exceeded the acceptable level and identify the next step of cooperation. Our study presents an example of CEA at large marine ecosystems scale and provides a reference to other large marine ecosystems in the West Pacific and elsewhere.
累积效应评估（CEA）应在具有生态意义的尺度上进行，例如大型海洋生态系统，以阻止人为压力造成的海洋进一步退化，并促进基于生态系统的管理，如跨境海洋空间规划（MSP）。然而，在大型海洋生态系统尺度上的研究很少，特别是在西太平洋海域，这些国家的 MSP 进程不同，但跨境合作至关重要。因此，逐步进行 CEA 将有助于为边界国家设定共同目标。本研究基于基于风险的 CEA 框架，将 CEA 分解为风险识别和空间显式风险分析，并将其应用于黄海大海洋生态系统（YSLME），旨在了解最具影响力的因果途径和风险分布模式。结果表明：(1) 包括港口、海水养殖、渔业、工业和城市发展、航运、能源和海岸防御在内的 7 个人类活动以及包括海底物理损失、有害物质、氮和磷富营养化在内的 3 种压力是黄海大海洋生态系统环境问题的主要原因；(2) 底栖生物、鱼类、藻类、潮间带、海鸟和海洋哺乳动物是累积效应作用下最脆弱的生态系统组成部分；(3) 风险较高的区域主要集中在近岸区，特别是山东、辽宁和江苏北部，而韩国沿海湾也存在高风险；(4) 在跨境地区可以观察到某些风险，其原因是由于气旋环流和细粒沉积物，该地区普遍存在捕捞、航运和污染物下沉等活动。在未来的 MSP 跨境合作中，应纳入风险标准和对现有管理措施的评估，以确定所确定的风险是否超过可接受水平，并确定下一步的合作。本研究为大型海洋生态系统尺度上的 CEA 提供了一个范例，并为西太平洋和其他地区的其他大型海洋生态系统提供了参考。
