Department of Respiratory Disease, Children's Hospital of Soochow University, Jingde Road NO. 303, Suzhou, 215003, Jiangsu, China.
Sci Rep. 2022 Mar 23;12(1):5018. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-08985-5.
Wheezing diseases are one of the major chronic respiratory diseases in children. To explore the effects of meteorological and environmental factors on the prevalence of children wheezing diseases, clinical data of children hospitalized with wheezing diseases in Suzhou, China from 2013 to 2017 were collected. Meteorological and environmental factors from 2013 to 2017 were obtained from the local Meteorological Bureau and Environmental Protection Bureau. Relationships between wheezing diseases and meteorological and environmental factors were evaluated using Pearson's correlation and multivariate regression analysis. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to estimate the effects of meteorological and environmental variables on children wheezing diseases. Children wheezing diseases were frequently presented in infants less than 12 months old (1897/2655, 58.28%), and the hospitalization rate was highest in winter (1024/3255, 31.46%). In pathogen-positive specimens, the top three pathogens were respiratory syncytial virus (21.35%), human rhinovirus (16.28%) and mycoplasma pneumoniae (10.47%). The seasonality of wheezing children number showed a distinctive winter peak. Children wheezing diseases were negatively correlated with average temperature (P < 0.001, r = - 0.598). The ARIMA (1,0,0)(0,0,0) model could be used to predict temperature changes associated wheezing diseases. Meteorological and environmental factors were associated with the number of hospitalized children with wheezing diseases and can be used as early warning indicators for the occurrence of wheezing diseases and prevalence of virus.
喘息性疾病是儿童主要的慢性呼吸系统疾病之一。为探讨气象和环境因素对儿童喘息性疾病发病的影响，收集了 2013 年至 2017 年中国苏州因喘息性疾病住院的儿童临床资料，同时收集同期气象和环境因素资料。采用 Pearson 相关分析和多元回归分析评估喘息性疾病与气象和环境因素的关系，采用自回归求和移动平均（ARIMA）模型估计气象和环境变量对儿童喘息性疾病的影响。结果显示，喘息性疾病患儿以 12 个月以下婴儿为主（1897/2655，58.28%），住院高峰在冬季（1024/3255，31.46%）。在病原阳性标本中，前三位病原体分别为呼吸道合胞病毒（21.35%）、人鼻病毒（16.28%）和肺炎支原体（10.47%）。喘息儿童人数季节性呈明显冬季高峰。喘息儿童数量与平均温度呈负相关（P<0.001，r=−0.598）。ARIMA（1,0,0）（0,0,0）模型可用于预测与温度变化相关的喘息疾病。气象和环境因素与喘息性疾病住院儿童数量有关，可作为喘息性疾病发生和病毒流行的预警指标。
