Department of Respiratory Medicine, Children's Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, China.
Front Public Health. 2023 Jan 27;11:1090474. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1090474. eCollection 2023.
Climate and environmental change is a well-known factor causing bronchial asthma in children. After the outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), climate and environmental changes have occurred. The present study investigated the relationship between climate changes (meteorological and environmental factors) and the number of hospitalizations for pediatric bronchial asthma in Suzhou before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
From 2017 to 2021, data on daily inpatients diagnosed with bronchial asthma at Children's Hospital of Soochow University were collected. Suzhou Meteorological and Environmental Protection Bureau provided daily meteorological and environmental data. To assess the relationship between bronchial asthma-related hospitalizations and meteorological and environmental factors, partial correlation and multiple stepwise regression analyses were used. To estimate the effects of meteorological and environmental variables on the development of bronchial asthma in children, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used.
After the COVID-19 outbreak, both the rate of acute exacerbation of bronchial asthma and the infection rate of pathogenic respiratory syncytial virus decreased, whereas the proportion of school-aged children and the infection rate of human rhinovirus increased. After the pandemic, the incidence of an acute asthma attack was negatively correlated with monthly mean temperature and positively correlated with PM. Stepwise regression analysis showed that monthly mean temperature and O were independent covariates (risk factors) for the rate of acute asthma exacerbations. The ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (0, 0, 0) 12 model can be used to predict temperature changes associated with bronchial asthma.
Meteorological and environmental factors are related to bronchial asthma development in children. The influence of meteorological and environmental factors on bronchial asthma may be helpful in predicting the incidence and attack rates.
气候和环境变化是导致儿童支气管哮喘的已知因素。冠状病毒病（COVID-19）爆发后，气候和环境发生了变化。本研究调查了 COVID-19 大流行前后苏州气候变化（气象和环境因素）与儿童支气管哮喘住院人数之间的关系。
从 2017 年到 2021 年，收集了苏州大学附属儿童医院每天诊断为支气管哮喘的住院患者数据。苏州气象和环保部门提供了每日气象和环境数据。为了评估支气管哮喘相关住院与气象和环境因素之间的关系，使用了偏相关和多元逐步回归分析。为了估计气象和环境变量对儿童支气管哮喘发展的影响，使用了自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型。
COVID-19 爆发后，支气管哮喘急性发作率和呼吸道合胞病毒感染率均下降，而学龄儿童比例和人鼻病毒感染率上升。大流行后，哮喘急性发作的发生率与月平均温度呈负相关，与 PM 呈正相关。逐步回归分析表明，月平均温度和 O 是哮喘急性发作率的独立协变量（危险因素）。ARIMA（1,0,0）（0,0,0）12 模型可用于预测与支气管哮喘相关的温度变化。
气象和环境因素与儿童支气管哮喘的发展有关。气象和环境因素对支气管哮喘的影响有助于预测发病率和发作率。
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