Castro E Silva Alcides, Bernardes Américo Tristão, Barbosa Eduardo Augusto Gonçalves, Chagas Igor Aparecido Santana das, Dáttilo Wesley, Reis Alexandre Barbosa, Ribeiro Sérvio Pontes
Laboratory of Complexity Science, Department of Physics, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, ICEB, St. Quatro, 786, Bauxita, Ouro Preto 35400-000, MG, Brazil.
Centro Federal de Educação Tecnológica de Minas Gerais, Graduate Program in Mathematical and Computational Modeling, Ave. Amazonas, 7675, Nova Gameleira, Belo Horizonte 30510-000, MG, Brazil.
Vaccines (Basel). 2022 Feb 22;10(3):343. doi: 10.3390/vaccines10030343.
One hundred years after the flu pandemic of 1918, the world faces an outbreak of a new severe acute respiratory syndrome, caused by a novel coronavirus. With a high transmissibility, the pandemic has spread worldwide, creating a scenario of devastation in many countries. By the middle of 2021, about 3% of the world population had been infected and more than 4 million people had died. Different from the H1N1 pandemic, which had a deadly wave and ceased, the new disease is maintained by successive waves, mainly produced by new virus variants and the small number of vaccinated people. In the present work, we create a version of the SIR model using the spatial localization of persons, their movements, and considering social isolation probabilities. We discuss the effects of virus variants, and the role of vaccination rate in the pandemic dynamics. We show that, unless a global vaccination is implemented, we will have continuous waves of infections.
1918年流感大流行百年之后，世界面临由一种新型冠状病毒引发的新型严重急性呼吸综合征疫情。这种疫情传播性很强，已蔓延至全球，在许多国家造成了破坏局面。到2021年年中，全球约3%的人口被感染，400多万人死亡。与有一波致命感染然后平息的H1N1大流行不同，这种新疾病由连续的疫情波维持，主要由新的病毒变种和少量接种疫苗的人群引发。在本研究中，我们利用人员的空间定位、他们的移动情况并考虑社会隔离概率创建了一个SIR模型版本。我们讨论了病毒变种的影响以及疫苗接种率在疫情动态中的作用。我们表明，除非实施全球疫苗接种，否则感染将持续出现疫情波。
