基于灰色模型的中国居民主要食物摄入量预测

Lu Xiaodi, Fang Yuehui, Lian Yiyao, Zhang Jiguo, Zhang Xiaofan, He Yuna

National Institute for Nutrition and Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.

Wei Sheng Yan Jiu. 2022 Jan;51(1):1-11. doi: 10.19813/j.cnki.weishengyanjiu.2022.01.001.

OBJECTIVE

To predict the main food intake trend of the China's urban and rural residents from 2022 to 2030.

METHODS

Data was collected from the China Health and Nutrition Survey(CHNS), which was carried out on a stratified, multistage, clustered, and random sampling method. And the average daily food intake in the survey was continuously collected by a 24-hour dietary review method for 3 consecutive days. The sample sizes aged 20 years or older of seven rounds survey were 9794, 9425, 9313, 9726, 12 760, 15 446 and 15 051, respectively. Based on the seven rounds of average food intake, the main food intake of urban and rural residents in China from 2022 to 2030 was predicted by the Grey model.

RESULTS

(1)The mean absolute percentage error of average food intake prediction in urban and rural ranged from 1.6% to 38.4%. (2)In terms of the trends of food intake from 2022 to 2030, the grain and vegetable average intake of plant food in urban and rural residents showed a decreasing trend, while the average intake of fruits showed an increasing trend. The average intake of animal food, such as poultry and aquatic products in urban, livestock, poultry, eggs in rural areas showed an upward trend. Meanwhile, the average intake of animal food, such as livestock and eggs in urban and aquatic products in rural showed a downward trend. (3)Compared with the 2018, the fruits, poultry and aquatic product intake of urban and rural residents in 2030 will increase by 60.7%, 29.4% and 6.6%, the intake of grain, vegetables, livestock and eggs in urban areas will decrease by 36.9%, 19.4%, 8.7% and 12.4%, respectively. In 2030, the intake of fruits, livestock, poultry and eggs of rural residents will increase by 88.9%, 31.8%, 71.9% and 9.2%, respectively. While the intake of grain, vegetables and aquatic products of rural residents will decrease by 32.5%, 24.8% and 2.2%, respectively. (4)By 2030, the average intake of poultry in urban and rural areas will be within the recommended range of dietary guidelines. But the average intake of grain, vegetables, fruits, eggs and aquatic products in urban and rural areas will remain below dietary recommendations. While the livestock average intake will be far higher than the recommendations.

CONCLUSION

The model accuracy is different when applied to different kinds of food. According to the prediction result of the grey model, residents should be guided to maintain the current grain intake level and increase the intake of vegetables, fruits, poultry, eggs and aquatic products in order to get balanced diet, while reducing the intake of livestock.

目的

预测2022年至2030年中国城乡居民的主要食物摄入趋势。

方法

数据收集自中国健康与营养调查（CHNS），该调查采用分层、多阶段、整群随机抽样方法。通过连续3天的24小时膳食回顾法持续收集调查中的平均每日食物摄入量。七轮调查中20岁及以上的样本量分别为9794、9425、9313、9726、12760、15446和15051。基于七轮平均食物摄入量，采用灰色模型预测2022年至2030年中国城乡居民的主要食物摄入量。

结果

（1）城乡平均食物摄入量预测的平均绝对百分比误差在1.6%至38.4%之间。（2）就2022年至2030年的食物摄入趋势而言，城乡居民植物性食物中的谷物和蔬菜平均摄入量呈下降趋势，而水果平均摄入量呈上升趋势。城市中的禽类和水产品、农村中的畜禽和蛋类等动物性食物平均摄入量呈上升趋势。同时，城市中的畜禽和蛋类、农村中的水产品等动物性食物平均摄入量呈下降趋势。（3）与2018年相比，2030年城乡居民水果、禽类和水产品摄入量将分别增加60.7%、29.4%和6.6%，城市地区谷物、蔬菜、畜禽和蛋类摄入量将分别下降36.9%、19.4%、8.7%和12.4%。2030年农村居民水果、畜禽、禽类和蛋类摄入量将分别增加88.9%、31.8%、71.9%和9.2%。而农村居民谷物、蔬菜和水产品摄入量将分别下降32.5%、24.8%和2.2%。（4）到2030年，城乡禽类平均摄入量将处于膳食指南推荐范围内。但城乡谷物、蔬菜、水果、蛋类和水产品平均摄入量仍将低于膳食推荐量。而畜禽平均摄入量将远高于推荐量。