Institute of Medical Science, Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Institute of Medical Science, Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
BMJ Open. 2022 Mar 28;12(3):e056806. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-056806.
In recent summers, some populous mid-latitude to high-latitude regions have experienced greater heat intensity, more at night than by day. Such warming has been associated with increased cause-specific adult mortality. Sex-specific and age-specific associations between summer nocturnal surface air temperatures (SAT) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths have yet to be established.
A monthly time series analysis (June-July, 2001-2015) was performed on sex-specific CVD deaths in England and Wales of adults aged 60-64 and 65-69 years. Using negative binomial regression with autocorrelative residuals, associations between summer (June-July) nocturnal SAT anomalies (primary exposure) and CVD death rates (outcome) were computed, controlling for key covariates. To explore external validity, similar associations with respect to CVD death in King County, Washington, USA, also were calculated, but only for men aged 60-64 and 65-69 years. Results are reported as incidence rate ratios.
From 2001 to 2015, within these specific cohorts, 39 912 CVD deaths (68.9% men) were recorded in England and Wales and 488 deaths in King County. In England and Wales, after controlling for covariates, a 1°C rise in anomalous summer nocturnal SAT associated significantly with a 3.1% (95% CI 0.3% to 5.9%) increased risk of CVD mortality among men aged 60-64, but not older men or either women age groups. In King County, after controlling for covariates, a 1°C rise associated significantly with a 4.8% (95% CI 1.7% to 8.1%) increased risk of CVD mortality among those <65 years but not older men.
In two mid-latitude regions, warmer summer nights are accompanied by an increased risk of death from CVD among men aged 60-64 years.
近年来，一些人口稠密的中高纬度地区夜间的热强度比白天更大。这种变暖与特定原因的成人死亡率增加有关。夏季夜间地表空气温度（SAT）与心血管疾病（CVD）死亡之间的性别特异性和年龄特异性关联尚未确定。
对英格兰和威尔士 60-64 岁和 65-69 岁成年人的特定性别 CVD 死亡进行了 2001-2015 年 6-7 月的月度时间序列分析。使用具有自相关残差的负二项回归，计算夏季（6-7 月）夜间 SAT 异常（主要暴露）与 CVD 死亡率（结果）之间的关联，同时控制关键协变量。为了探索外部有效性，还计算了美国华盛顿州金县男性 60-64 岁和 65-69 岁人群 CVD 死亡的类似关联，但仅限男性。结果以发病率比报告。
在 2001 年至 2015 年期间，在这些特定队列中，英格兰和威尔士记录了 39912 例 CVD 死亡（68.9%为男性），金县记录了 488 例死亡。在英格兰和威尔士，在控制协变量后，夏季夜间 SAT 异常每升高 1°C，与 60-64 岁男性 CVD 死亡率增加 3.1%（95%CI 0.3%至 5.9%）显著相关，但与年龄较大的男性或任何女性年龄组无关。在金县，在控制协变量后，与年龄相关的每升高 1°C，与 65 岁以下人群 CVD 死亡率增加 4.8%（95%CI 1.7%至 8.1%）显著相关，但与年龄较大的男性无关。
在两个中纬度地区，60-64 岁男性夏季夜间变暖与 CVD 死亡风险增加有关。
