College of Economics and Management, Academy of Global Food Economics and Policy, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China.
Department of Maternal and Child Health, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, China.
Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2022 Mar 8;13:849392. doi: 10.3389/fendo.2022.849392. eCollection 2022.
To explore the impact of population aging on the projected prevalence of obesity among Chinese adults in 2030.
In total, 71450 observations were extracted from the China Health and Nutrition Survey between 1991 and 2015.Population was projected to 2030 using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling method. Two different approaches were adopted to estimate and project the national prevalence of overweight/obesity from 1991 to 2030. One method assumed a constant population at the base year, while the other allowed the age and gender distributions vary in each year.
Our projection indicated that approximately two-thirds of Chinese adults would be affected by overweight/general obesity in 2030, and more than 60% of Chinese adults will suffer from abdominal obesity in 2030. Ignoring population aging led to an underestimation of overweight, general obesity and abdominal obesity for women by 3.81, 0.06, and 3.16 percentage points (pp), and overweight and abdominal obesity among men by 1.67 and 0.53 pp, respectively; but the prevalence of general obesity among men will be overestimated by 2.11 pp. Similar underestimations were detected in the estimation from 1991 to 2015.
Estimating and projecting the national prevalence of obesity using a constant population structure at the base line would cause significant underestimation if countries are undergoing rapid population aging.
探讨人口老龄化对 2030 年中国成年人肥胖患病率预测的影响。
共从 1991 年至 2015 年的中国健康与营养调查中提取了 71450 个观测值。采用贝叶斯分层建模方法预测 2030 年的人口。采用两种不同的方法来估计和预测 1991 年至 2030 年超重/肥胖的全国患病率。一种方法假设基年的人口保持不变，另一种方法允许每年的年龄和性别分布发生变化。
我们的预测表明，到 2030 年，大约三分之二的中国成年人将受到超重/一般性肥胖的影响，超过 60%的中国成年人将在 2030 年遭受腹型肥胖。忽略人口老龄化会导致女性超重、一般性肥胖和腹型肥胖的估计值低估 3.81%、0.06%和 3.16%，男性超重和腹型肥胖的估计值低估 1.67%和 0.53%；但男性一般性肥胖的患病率将高估 2.11%。从 1991 年到 2015 年的估计中也发现了类似的低估。
如果一个国家正在经历快速的人口老龄化，那么使用基线人口结构不变的方法来估计和预测全国肥胖患病率将会导致显著的低估。
