Godínez-Oviedo Angélica, Sampedro Fernando, Bowman John P, Garcés-Vega Francisco J, Hernández-Iturriaga Montserrat
Departamento de Investigación y Posgrado de Alimentos, Facultad de Química, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Querétaro, México.
Food Safety and Innovation Centre, Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
Risk Anal. 2023 Feb;43(2):308-323. doi: 10.1111/risa.13907. Epub 2022 Apr 6.
To prevent and control foodborne diseases, there is a fundamental need to identify the foods that are most likely to cause illness. The goal of this study was to rank 25 commonly consumed food products associated with Salmonella enterica contamination in the Central Region of Mexico. A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework was developed to obtain an S. enterica risk score for each food product based on four criteria: probability of exposure to S. enterica through domestic food consumption (Se); S. enterica growth potential during home storage (Sg); per capita consumption (Pcc); and food attribution of S. enterica outbreak (So). Risk scores were calculated by the equation SeW +SgW +PccW +SoW , where each criterion was assigned a normalized value (1-5) and the relative weights (W) were defined by 22 experts' opinion. Se had the largest effect on the risk score being the criterion with the highest weight (35%; IC95% 20%-60%), followed by So (24%; 5%-50%), Sg (23%; 10%-40%), and Pcc (18%; 10%-35%). The results identified chicken (4.4 ± 0.6), pork (4.2 ± 0.6), and beef (4.2 ± 0.5) as the highest risk foods, followed by seed fruits (3.6 ± 0.5), tropical fruits (3.4 ± 0.4), and dried fruits and nuts (3.4 ± 0.5), while the food products with the lowest risk were yogurt (2.1 ± 0.3), chorizo (2.1 ± 0.4), and cream (2.0 ± 0.3). Approaches with expert-based weighting and equal weighting showed good correlation (R = 0.96) and did not show significant differences among the ranking order in the top 20 tier. This study can help risk managers select interventions and develop targeted surveillance programs against S. enterica in high-risk food products.
为预防和控制食源性疾病，根本需求在于确定最有可能引发疾病的食品。本研究的目的是对墨西哥中部地区与肠炎沙门氏菌污染相关的25种常见消费食品进行排名。开发了一个多标准决策分析（MCDA）框架，以基于四个标准为每种食品获得肠炎沙门氏菌风险评分：通过家庭食品消费接触肠炎沙门氏菌的概率（Se）；在家中储存期间肠炎沙门氏菌的生长潜力（Sg）；人均消费量（Pcc）；以及肠炎沙门氏菌爆发的食品归因（So）。风险评分通过公式SeW +SgW +PccW +SoW计算得出，其中每个标准被赋予一个归一化值（1 - 5），相对权重（W）由22位专家的意见确定。Se对风险评分的影响最大，是权重最高的标准（35%；IC95% 20% - 60%），其次是So（24%；5% - 50%）、Sg（23%；10% - 40%）和Pcc（18%；10% - 35%）。结果确定鸡肉（4.4±0.6）、猪肉（4.2±0.6）和牛肉（4.2±0.5）为风险最高的食品，其次是籽实类水果（3.6±0.5）、热带水果（3.4±0.4）以及干制水果和坚果（3.4±0.5），而风险最低的食品是酸奶（2.1±0.3）、西班牙辣香肠（2.1±0.4）和奶油（2.0±0.3）。基于专家加权和等权重的方法显示出良好的相关性（R = 0.96），并且在前20名的排名顺序中未显示出显著差异。本研究可帮助风险管理者选择干预措施，并针对高风险食品制定针对肠炎沙门氏菌的靶向监测计划。
