Santos Jefferson Pereira Caldas Dos, Albuquerque Hermano Gomes, Siqueira Alexandre San Pedro, Praça Heitor Levy Ferreira, Pereira Leandro Vouga, Tavares Alessandre de Medeiros, Gusmão Eduardo Viana Vieira, Bruno Paulo Roberto de Abreu, Barcellos Christovam, Carvalho Marília de Sá, Sabroza Paulo Chagastelles, Honório Nildimar Alves
Instituto de Tecnologia em Fármacos, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.
Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.
Cad Saude Publica. 2022 Apr 1;38(3):e00110121. doi: 10.1590/0102-311X00110121. eCollection 2022.
The study aimed to present the methodological proposal entitled "Prompt Response", modelled in the cities of Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais State) and Natal (Rio Grande do Norte State), Brazil. The proposal aims to identify and demarcate priority areas for timely targeting of surveillance activities, aiming to reduce the intensity and velocity in the spread of epidemics in endemic urban areas. The methodology uses three variables that represent the necessary causes for the production and reproduction of dengue: notified cases (virus), Aedes eggs (vector), and population (host). This was an ecological study that used data from three information planes aggregated in finer temporal and spatial scales of 3 to 4 weeks and 400 to 600-meter grids, respectively. The prompt response areas were defined by Scan statistical analysis with definition of simultaneous spatial clusters for the three planes via the SaTScan program. In Natal, the areas defined as prompt response occupied, on average, 15.2% of the city's territory and concentrated 67.77% of the dengue cases in the period following demarcation of the prompt response areas. In Belo Horizonte, the observed proportions were 64.16% of cases in 23.23% of the territory. These results were obtained in two cities with different socioenvironmental and geographic realities and distinct epidemiological profiles, indicating that the methodology can be applied to different urban realities, allowing control programs to concentrate on reduced portions of the territory and impacting a high percentage of cases in timely fashion.
该研究旨在介绍一项名为“快速反应”的方法建议,该建议在巴西贝洛奥里藏特市(米纳斯吉拉斯州)和纳塔尔市(北大河州)进行了模拟。该建议旨在确定和划定优先区域,以便及时开展监测活动,旨在降低地方病流行城市中流行病传播的强度和速度。该方法使用三个变量,它们代表登革热产生和传播的必要因素:报告病例(病毒)、伊蚊卵(病媒)和人口(宿主)。这是一项生态学研究,使用了分别在3至4周的更精细时间尺度和400至600米网格的更精细空间尺度上汇总的三个信息层面的数据。通过Scan统计分析定义快速反应区域,并通过SaTScan程序为三个层面定义同时性空间聚类。在纳塔尔,定义为快速反应的区域平均占该市领土的15.2%,并在划定快速反应区域后的时期内集中了67.77%的登革热病例。在贝洛奥里藏特,观察到的比例是在23.23%的领土上出现了64.16%的病例。这些结果是在两个社会环境和地理现实不同、流行病学特征各异的城市中获得的,表明该方法可应用于不同的城市现实,使控制计划能够集中在较小的领土区域,并及时影响高比例的病例。