Red Sea Research Centre (RSRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, 23955, Saudi Arabia.
Computational Bioscience Research Centre (CBRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, 23955, Saudi Arabia.
Sci Rep. 2022 Apr 19;12(1):6457. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-10097-z.
The race between pathogens and their hosts is a major evolutionary driver, where both reshuffle their genomes to overcome and reorganize the defenses for infection, respectively. Evolutionary theory helps formulate predictions on the future evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, which can be monitored through unprecedented real-time tracking of SARS-CoV-2 population genomics at the global scale. Here we quantify the accelerating evolution of SARS-CoV-2 by tracking the SARS-CoV-2 mutation globally, with a focus on the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) of the spike protein determining infection success. We estimate that the > 820 million people that had been infected by October 5, 2021, produced up to 10 copies of the virus, with 12 new effective RBD variants appearing, on average, daily. Doubling of the number of RBD variants every 89 days, followed by selection of the most infective variants challenges our defenses and calls for a shift to anticipatory, rather than reactive tactics involving collaborative global sequencing and vaccination.
病原体与其宿主之间的竞争是主要的进化驱动力，它们分别通过改组基因组来克服和重组感染防御。进化理论有助于对 SARS-CoV-2 的未来进化动态进行预测，这可以通过在全球范围内以前所未有的实时方式跟踪 SARS-CoV-2 的群体基因组学来监测。在这里，我们通过跟踪全球范围内的 SARS-CoV-2 突变来量化 SARS-CoV-2 的加速进化，重点关注决定感染成功的刺突蛋白的受体结合域（RBD）。我们估计，截至 2021 年 10 月 5 日，已有超过 8.2 亿人感染了 SARS-CoV-2，平均每天产生多达 10 份病毒，出现了 12 种新的有效 RBD 变体。RBD 变体数量每 89 天翻一番，然后选择最具感染力的变体，这对我们的防御构成了挑战，并呼吁我们采取前瞻性的策略，而不是反应性的策略，包括协作的全球测序和疫苗接种。
