Health Interventions in a Poor Region and Resilience in the Presence of a Pandemic.

We focus on a poor region and study the nexuses between health interventions undertaken by a regional authority (RA) and this region's Holling resilience in the presence of a pandemic such as Covid-19. First, we show how a health intervention by the RA probabilistically affects an appropriately defined health indicator. Second, we compute the chance that the health status of this region's population falls below a minimum acceptable level in the presence of the health intervention. Third, we solve an optimization problem in which the RA maximizes the likelihood that the health status of this region's population stays above a minimum acceptable level at a given economic cost. Our analysis demonstrates that there is a connection between a health intervention, a region's health status, and its Holling resilience by presenting two applications. Our analysis reveals that this paper's methodology can be used to compute a region's Holling resilience with a particular health intervention. The main policy implications of our analysis concern the need for a RA to pay attention to (i) a region's health infrastructure and financing, (ii) sufficient engagement with the region's population, (iii) regional heterogeneity, (iv) data collection, and (v) the likelihood that sicker regions are likely to require more health interventions at a higher cost.