Bachar Mostafa, Khamsi Mohamed A, Bounkhel Messaoud
Department of Mathematics, College of Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Department of Mathematics, Kalifa University, Abu Dhabia, United Arab Emirates.
Adv Differ Equ. 2021;2021(1):253. doi: 10.1186/s13662-021-03410-z. Epub 2021 May 14.
In this work, we develop and analyze a nonautonomous mathematical model for the spread of the new corona-virus disease () in Saudi Arabia. The model includes eight time-dependent compartments: the dynamics of low-risk and high-risk susceptible individuals; the compartment of exposed individuals ; the compartment of infected individuals (divided into two compartments, namely those of infected undiagnosed individuals and the one consisting of infected diagnosed individuals ); the compartment of recovered undiagnosed individuals , that of recovered diagnosed individuals, and the compartment of extinct individuals. We investigate the persistence and the local stability including the reproduction number of the model, taking into account the control measures imposed by the authorities. We perform a parameter estimation over a short period of the total duration of the pandemic based on the epidemiological data, including the number of infected, recovered, and extinct individuals, in different time episodes of the spread.
在这项工作中，我们开发并分析了一个用于沙特阿拉伯新型冠状病毒病传播的非自治数学模型。该模型包括八个随时间变化的 compartments：低风险和高风险易感个体的动态变化；暴露个体的 compartment；感染个体的 compartment（分为两个 compartment，即未确诊感染个体的 compartment 和确诊感染个体的 compartment）；康复未确诊个体的 compartment、康复确诊个体的 compartment 以及灭绝个体的 compartment。我们考虑当局实施的控制措施，研究模型的持续性和局部稳定性，包括再生数。我们基于流行病学数据，在疫情总持续时间的短时期内，对疫情传播不同时间段内感染、康复和灭绝个体的数量进行参数估计。
