Department of Environmental, Agricultural, and Occupational Health, College of Public Health, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE 68198, USA.
Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68588, USA.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Apr 12;19(8):4628. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19084628.
The outcomes of drought can be difficult to assess due to the complexity of its effects. While most risk assessments of drought are developed for agriculture or water resources, the associations with human health are not well studied due to unclear and complex pathways. This study is the first to assess potential changes in health risk from droughts during the last decade in the contiguous United States. To assess the risk, we spatially superimposed vulnerability variables associated with drought on historical drought exposure over the last decade. Different variations in Local Moran's I statistics were used to assess the spatial distribution of health vulnerability, risk of drought, and changes in the two five-year study periods (2010-2014 and 2015-2019). Our results show large clusters of the western United States had a significant increase in risk during the latter part of the study period due to increases in vulnerability and hazard. In addition, southern areas of the United States were consistently above the national average in drought risk. Since our vulnerability variables include agriculture, drinking water, and sociodemographic indicators, the results of this study can help various experts interested in drought preparedness efforts associated with human health.
由于干旱影响的复杂性，其结果往往难以评估。尽管大多数干旱风险评估都是针对农业或水资源进行的，但由于其途径不明确且复杂，因此对与人类健康相关的关联研究还不够充分。本研究首次评估了过去十年美国大陆地区干旱对健康风险的潜在变化。为了评估风险，我们将与干旱相关的脆弱性变量与过去十年的历史干旱暴露情况叠加在空间上。使用局部 Moran I 统计量的不同变化来评估健康脆弱性、干旱风险以及两个五年研究期（2010-2014 年和 2015-2019 年）中变化的空间分布。我们的研究结果表明，由于脆弱性和危害的增加，美国西部的大片地区在后一研究阶段的风险显著增加。此外，美国南部地区的干旱风险一直高于全国平均水平。由于我们的脆弱性变量包括农业、饮用水和社会人口指标，因此这项研究的结果可以帮助对与人类健康相关的干旱准备工作感兴趣的各种专家。
