Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University, 80333 Munich, Germany.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Apr 18;19(8):4898. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19084898.
The Gaza Strip is one of the world’s most fragile states and faces substantial public health and development challenges. Climate change is intensifying existing environmental problems, including increased water stress. We provide the first published assessment of climate impacts on diarrhoeal disease in Gaza and project future health burdens under climate change scenarios. Over 1 million acute diarrhoea cases presenting to health facilities during 2009−2020 were linked to weekly temperature and rainfall data and associations assessed using time-series regression analysis employing distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs). Models were applied to climate projections to estimate future burdens of diarrhoeal disease under 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming scenarios. There was a significantly raised risk of diarrhoeal disease associated with both mean weekly temperature above 19 °C and total weekly rainfall below 6 mm in children 0−3 years. A heat effect was also present in subjects aged > 3 years. Annual diarrhoea cases attributable to heat and low rainfall was 2209.0 and 4070.3, respectively, in 0−3-year-olds. In both age-groups, heat-related cases could rise by over 10% under a 2 °C global warming level compared to baseline, but would be limited to below 2% under a 1.5 °C scenario. Mean rises of 0.9% and 2.7% in diarrhoea cases associated with reduced rainfall are projected for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios, respectively, in 0−3-year-olds. Climate change impacts will add to the considerable development challenges already faced by the people of Gaza. Substantial health gains could be achieved if global warming is limited to 1.5 °C.
加沙地带是世界上最脆弱的国家之一，面临着重大的公共卫生和发展挑战。气候变化正在加剧现有的环境问题，包括水资源压力增大。我们首次评估了气候变化对加沙腹泻病的影响，并根据气候变化情景预测了未来的健康负担。在 2009 年至 2020 年期间，有超过 100 万例急性腹泻病例前往医疗机构就诊，我们将这些病例与每周的温度和降雨量数据联系起来，并使用时间序列回归分析评估了关联度，采用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNMs）。我们将模型应用于气候预测，以估算在 2°C 和 1.5°C 全球变暖情景下腹泻病的未来负担。研究发现，儿童（0−3 岁）每周平均温度高于 19°C 或总降雨量低于 6mm 时，腹泻病的风险显著升高。年龄大于 3 岁的人群也存在热效应。在 0−3 岁儿童中，与高温和低降雨量相关的年腹泻病病例分别为 2209.0 和 4070.3 例。在这两个年龄组中，与高温相关的病例数在 2°C 全球变暖水平下比基线增加了 10%以上，但在 1.5°C 情景下则限制在 2%以下。与降雨量减少相关的腹泻病病例预计将分别增加 0.9%和 2.7%，这是在 1.5°C 和 2°C 情景下，0−3 岁儿童面临的情况。气候变化的影响将加剧加沙人民已经面临的巨大发展挑战。如果将全球变暖限制在 1.5°C，将可以实现重大的健康收益。
