Department of Nutrition, Paraíba Federal University, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil
Department of Nutrition, Paraíba Federal University, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil.
BMJ Open. 2022 Apr 26;12(4):e057953. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-057953.
Estimate reductions in cardiovascular mortality achievable through improvement in nutrient intakes according to processing level (NOVA classification), that is, reducing consumption of culinary ingredients (G2), processed (G3) and ultra-processed foods (G4) while encouraging consumption of unprocessed and minimally processed foods (G1).
Modelling study.
General adult population of Brazil.
Men and women aged 25 or more years (34 003) investigated in the Household Budget Survey 2017-2018, in the consumption data module.
We used the IMPACT Food Policy Model to estimate the reduction in deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) up to 2048 in five scenarios with reductions in saturated fat, trans fat, salt and added sugar intakes resulting from changes in NOVA groups. (1) The optimistic scenario modelised an increase in the energy intake provided by G1 and a reduction in the energy intake from G2, G3 and G4, return to previous levels. (2) The minimal scenario modelised a 3.7% increase in the energy intake from G1, and a reduction in the energy intake from G4 to the 2008-2009 level. (3) The modest scenario only modelised a 25.0% reduction of the energy intake from G2 and G3. (4) The intermediary scenario modelised the minimal scenario plus a 25.0% reduction in the energy intake from G2. (5) Finally, the advanced scenario modelised the minimal scenario plus a 25.0% reduction in the energy intake from G2 and G3.
Proposed changes in the optimistic scenario could prevent or delay 52.8% CVD-related deaths by 2048. Changes modelled in the minimal, modest, intermediary and advanced scenarios may result in a 10.1%, 28.4%, 31.4% and 38.6% reduction in 2048 CVD mortality, respectively.
Substantial health gains can be achieved by improving the diet, through plausible modifications aimed at the level of processing as a tool for Brazilian food policies.
根据加工水平（NOVA 分类）估计通过改善营养摄入可实现的心血管死亡率降低，即减少烹饪原料（G2）、加工（G3）和超加工食品（G4）的消费，同时鼓励食用未加工和最低限度加工的食品（G1）。
建模研究。
巴西一般成年人口。
在 2017-2018 年家庭预算调查的消费数据模块中，调查了年龄在 25 岁及以上的男性和女性（34003 人）。
我们使用 IMPACT 食品政策模型来估计 2048 年之前五种情况下因 NOVA 组变化导致饱和脂肪、反式脂肪、盐和添加糖摄入量减少而导致的心血管疾病（CVD）死亡人数减少。（1）乐观情景模拟了 G1 提供的能量摄入增加，以及 G2、G3 和 G4 的能量摄入减少，回到之前的水平。（2）最小情景模拟了 G1 能量摄入增加 3.7%，以及 G4 的能量摄入减少到 2008-2009 年的水平。（3）适度情景仅模拟了 G2 和 G3 的能量摄入减少 25.0%。（4）中间情景模拟了最小情景加上 G2 的能量摄入减少 25.0%。（5）最后，高级情景模拟了最小情景加上 G2 和 G3 的能量摄入减少 25.0%。
乐观情景中提出的变化可能会在 2048 年前预防或延迟 52.8%的 CVD 相关死亡。在最小、适度、中间和高级情景中模拟的变化可能会导致 2048 年 CVD 死亡率分别降低 10.1%、28.4%、31.4%和 38.6%。
通过改善饮食，特别是通过作为巴西食品政策工具的加工水平的合理调整，可以实现显著的健康收益。
