Rommel Alexander, von der Lippe Elena, Treskova-Schwarzbach Marina, Scholz Stefan
Robert Koch Institute, Berlin Department of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring.
Robert Koch Institute, Berlin Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology.
J Health Monit. 2021 Apr 21;6(Suppl 2):2-15. doi: 10.25646/7859. eCollection 2021 Apr.
Only a minority of people who test positive for COVID-19 develop a severe or critical form of the disease. Many of these have risk factors such as old age or pre-existing conditions and, therefore, are at the focus of protective measures. This article determines the number of people at risk in Germany and differentiates them according to age, sex, education, household type and federal state. The analyses presented here are based on data from the German Health Update (GEDA) 2019/2020-EHIS, which was carried out as a nationwide cross-sectional telephone-based survey between April 2019 and October 2020. The definition of being at increased risk of severe COVID-19 is primarily based on a respondent's age and the presence of pre-existing conditions. Around 36.5 million people in Germany are at an increased risk of developing severe COVID-19. Of these, 21.6 million belong to the high-risk group. An above-average number of people at risk live alone. The prevalence of an increased risk is higher among middle-aged men than among women of the same age, and significantly higher among people with a low level of education than among people with a high level of education. The highest proportion of people with an increased risk live in Saarland and in the eastern German federal states. When fighting the pandemic, it is important to account for the fact that more than half of the population aged 15 or over is at increased risk of severe illness. Moreover, the regional differences in risk burden should be taken into account when planning interventions.
新冠病毒检测呈阳性的人中只有少数会发展为重症或危重症。其中许多人有年龄较大或存在基础疾病等风险因素，因此是保护措施的重点对象。本文确定了德国的高危人群数量，并根据年龄、性别、教育程度、家庭类型和联邦州对他们进行了区分。这里呈现的分析基于德国健康更新调查（GEDA）2019/2020 - 欧洲健康访谈调查（EHIS）的数据，该调查于2019年4月至2020年10月期间以全国性基于电话的横断面调查形式开展。新冠重症风险增加的定义主要基于受访者的年龄和基础疾病的存在情况。德国约3650万人有发展为新冠重症的风险增加。其中，2160万人属于高危群体。独居的高危人群数量高于平均水平。中年男性中风险增加的患病率高于同年龄段女性，且低教育水平人群中的患病率显著高于高教育水平人群。风险增加人群比例最高的是萨尔州和德国东部联邦州。在抗击疫情时，必须考虑到15岁及以上人口中超过一半有重症风险增加这一事实。此外，在规划干预措施时应考虑风险负担的地区差异。
