Neuhann Florian, Ginzel Sebastian, Buess Michael, Wolff Anna, Kugler Sabine, Schlanstedt Günter, Kossow Annelene, Nießen Johannes, Rüping Stefan
Gesundheitsamt der Stadt Köln, Neumarkt 15-21, 50667, Köln, Deutschland.
Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Hospital, Im Neuenheimer Feld 130.3, 69120, Heidelberg, Deutschland.
Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz. 2022 Sep;65(9):853-862. doi: 10.1007/s00103-022-03573-4. Epub 2022 Aug 3.
Even in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, which took a very different course globally, there were indications that socio-economic factors influenced the dynamics of disease spread, which from the second phase (September 2020) onwards particularly affected people with a lower socio-economic status. Such effects can also be seen within a large city. The present study visualizes and examines the spatio-temporal spread of all COVID-19 cases reported in Cologne, Germany (February 2020-October 2021) at district level and their possible association with socio-economic factors.
Pseudonymized data of all COVID-19 cases reported in Cologne were geo-coded and their distribution was mapped in an age-standardized way at district level over four periods and compared with the distribution of social factors. The possible influence of the selected factors was also examined in a regression analysis in a model with case growth rates.
The small-scale local infection process changed during the pandemic. Neighborhoods with weaker socio-economic indices showed higher incidence over a large part of the pandemic course, with a positive correlation between poverty risk factors and age-standardized incidence. The strength of this correlation changed over time.
The timely observation and analysis of the local spread dynamics reveals the positive correlation of disadvantaging socio-economic factors on the incidence rate of COVID-19 at the level of a large city and can help steer local containment measures in a targeted manner.
即使在新冠疫情的早期阶段，全球疫情走势差异巨大，但仍有迹象表明社会经济因素影响疾病传播动态，从第二阶段（2020年9月）起，这一影响尤其波及社会经济地位较低的人群。在大城市内部也能看到此类影响。本研究可视化并考察了德国科隆报告的所有新冠病例（2020年2月至2021年10月）在地区层面的时空传播情况及其与社会经济因素的可能关联。
对科隆报告的所有新冠病例的匿名数据进行地理编码，并按年龄标准化方式在四个时间段内绘制其在地区层面的分布情况，并与社会因素分布进行比较。在病例增长率模型的回归分析中，还考察了所选因素的可能影响。
疫情期间小规模的局部感染过程发生了变化。社会经济指标较弱的社区在疫情大部分时间里发病率较高，贫困风险因素与年龄标准化发病率之间呈正相关。这种相关性的强度随时间变化。
对局部传播动态的及时观察和分析揭示了大城市层面不利社会经济因素与新冠发病率之间的正相关关系，并有助于有针对性地指导当地的防控措施。
