Bossavie Laurent, Garrote-Sanchez Daniel, Makovec Mattia, Özden Çağlar
Social Protection and Jobs Department World Bank Washington District of Columbia USA.
Research Department World Bank Washington District of Columbia USA.
Rev Int Econ. 2022 Apr 10. doi: 10.1111/roie.12609.
This article investigates the relationship between immigration and the exposure of native workers to health and labor-market risks arising from the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Using various measures of occupational risks based on European Union labor force survey data, we find that immigrant workers, especially those from lower-income member countries in Eastern Europe or from outside the EU, face greater exposure than their native-born peers to both income and health-shocks related to COVID-19. We also show that native workers living in regions with a higher concentration of immigrants are less exposed to some of the income and health risks associated with the pandemic. To assess whether this relationship is causal, we use a Bartik-type shift-share instrument to control for potential bias and unobservable factors that would lead migrants to self-select into more vulnerable occupations across regions. The results show that the presence of immigrant workers has a causal effect in reducing the exposure of native workers to various risks by enabling the native-born workers to move into jobs that could be undertaken from the safety of their homes or with lower face-to-face interactions. The effects on the native-born population are more pronounced for high-skilled workers than for low-skilled workers, and for women than for men. We do not find significant effect of immigration on wages and employment-indicating that the effects are mostly driven by a reallocation of natives from less safe jobs to safer jobs.
本文研究了欧洲移民与本土工人因新冠疫情面临的健康和劳动力市场风险之间的关系。基于欧盟劳动力调查数据，运用多种职业风险衡量指标，我们发现移民工人，尤其是来自东欧低收入成员国或欧盟以外国家的移民工人，比他们的本土同龄人面临更大的与新冠疫情相关的收入和健康冲击风险。我们还表明，生活在移民集中度较高地区的本土工人，面临的一些与疫情相关的收入和健康风险较低。为评估这种关系是否具有因果性，我们使用一种巴蒂克（Bartik）式转移份额工具，以控制可能导致移民在不同地区自我选择进入更易受影响职业的偏差和不可观测因素。结果表明，移民工人的存在具有因果效应，通过使本土出生的工人能够转向可以在家中安全从事或面对面互动较少的工作，从而降低了本土工人面临各种风险的程度。对本土出生人口的影响，高技能工人比低技能工人更显著，女性比男性更显著。我们没有发现移民对工资和就业有显著影响，这表明影响主要是由本土工人从较不安全的工作重新分配到较安全的工作所驱动的。
